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A Coincidence Analysis of a Causal Chain

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  • Michael Baumgartner
  • Ruedi Epple

Abstract

This article applies coincidence analysis ( CNA ), a Boolean method of causal analysis presented in Baumgartner (2009a), to configurational data on the Swiss minaret vote of 2009. CNA is related to qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) (Ragin 2008), but contrary to the latter does not minimize sufficient and necessary conditions by means of Quine–McCluskey optimization, but based on its own custom built optimization algorithm. The latter greatly facilitates the analysis of data featuring chain-like causal dependencies among the conditions of an ultimate outcome—as can be found in the data on the Swiss minaret vote. Apart from providing a model of the causal structure behind the Swiss minaret vote, we show that a CNA of that data is preferable over a QCA.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Baumgartner & Ruedi Epple, 2014. "A Coincidence Analysis of a Causal Chain," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 43(2), pages 280-312, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:43:y:2014:i:2:p:280-312
    DOI: 10.1177/0049124113502948
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ragin, Charles C., 2000. "Fuzzy-Set Social Science," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226702773, April.
    2. Wai Lam & Elinor Ostrom, 2010. "Analyzing the dynamic complexity of development interventions: lessons from an irrigation experiment in Nepal," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 43(1), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Ragin, Charles C., 2006. "Set Relations in Social Research: Evaluating Their Consistency and Coverage," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 291-310, July.
    4. Gross, Dominique M., 2006. "Immigration policy and foreign population in Switzerland," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3853, The World Bank.
    5. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226702766 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Imai, Kosuke & Keele, Luke & Tingley, Dustin & Yamamoto, Teppei, 2011. "Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(4), pages 765-789, November.
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