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The Logic of Process Tracing Tests in the Social Sciences

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  • James Mahoney

Abstract

This article discusses process tracing as a methodology for testing hypotheses in the social sciences. With process tracing tests, the analyst combines preexisting generalizations with specific observations from within a single case to make causal inferences about that case. Process tracing tests can be used to help establish that (1) an initial event or process took place, (2) a subsequent outcome also occurred, and (3) the former was a cause of the latter. The article focuses on the logic of different process tracing tests, including hoop tests, smoking gun tests, and straw in the wind tests. New criteria for judging the strength of these tests are developed using ideas concerning the relative importance of necessary and sufficient conditions. Similarities and differences between process tracing and the deductive-nomological model of explanation are explored.

Suggested Citation

  • James Mahoney, 2012. "The Logic of Process Tracing Tests in the Social Sciences," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 41(4), pages 570-597, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:41:y:2012:i:4:p:570-597
    DOI: 10.1177/0049124112437709
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McKeown, Timothy J., 1999. "Case Studies and the Statistical Worldview: Erratum," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 815-815, October.
    2. Ragin, Charles C., 2000. "Fuzzy-Set Social Science," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226702773, April.
    3. Bennett, Andrew, 2006. "Stirring the Frequentist Pot with a Dash of Bayes," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 339-344, July.
    4. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226702766 is not listed on IDEAS
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    9. Fairfield, Tasha & Charman, Andrew, 2017. "Explicit Bayesian analysis for process tracing: guidelines, opportunities, and caveats," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69203, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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