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Measuring Demand and Supply Shocks From COVID-19: An Industry-Level Analysis for India

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  • Anuradha Patnaik

Abstract

The present article attempts to decompose the COVID-19-induced shock to output and inflation of the Indian economy at the aggregate and disaggregate levels into demand and supply shocks for the period March 2020 to June 2020, using a structural Bayesian VAR model following Baumeister and Hamilton (2015, 2019). The results of the empirical analysis reveal that while the negative supply shocks dominate at the aggregate and disaggregate levels, their magnitude varies across industries. Demand shocks to output were positive in some industries like the manufacture of food products (10), textiles (13), chemicals and chemical products (20), and electrical equipment (27), but were outweighed by the negative supply shocks. In response to the COVID-19 shock the government announced the three pronged Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (ABA), which is a blend of demand management, supply management and structural policies. It not only promises to address the short-term distress caused to the industries due to the COVID-19 shock but also attempts to make them self-reliant and resilient to such shocks in future. JEL Classification: E10, C32, C40, E30

Suggested Citation

  • Anuradha Patnaik, 2022. "Measuring Demand and Supply Shocks From COVID-19: An Industry-Level Analysis for India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 76-105, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:16:y:2022:i:1:p:76-105
    DOI: 10.1177/09738010211067392
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ghulam Ghouse & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti & Muhammad Hassam Shahid, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19, Political, and Financial Events on the Performance of Commercial Banking Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Yadavindu Ajit & Taniya Ghosh, 2024. "A Historical perspective on India's inflation persistence: A Quantile analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2024-015, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian VAR; Inflation; Output Gap; Demand Shock; Supply Shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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