IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/risrel/v227y2013i3p267-278.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty analysis in degradation modeling for maintenance policy assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Piero Baraldi
  • Michele Compare
  • Enrico Zio

Abstract

We consider the problem of the evaluation of the maintenance policy of a component by means of degradation modeling. We assume that the stochastic laws governing the degradation process are uncertain, and so are the related parameters. We assume that the information available is in the form of qualitative judgment by an expert. We develop a representation framework based on possibility theory and the concept of fuzzy random variables. An example of application is given with reference to a medium-voltage circuit-breaker test facility.

Suggested Citation

  • Piero Baraldi & Michele Compare & Enrico Zio, 2013. "Uncertainty analysis in degradation modeling for maintenance policy assessment," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(3), pages 267-278, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:227:y:2013:i:3:p:267-278
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X13488479
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1748006X13488479
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1748006X13488479?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dubois, Didier, 2006. "Possibility theory and statistical reasoning," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 47-69, November.
    2. Shapiro, Arnold F., 2009. "Fuzzy random variables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 307-314, April.
    3. Piero Baraldi & Enrico Zio, 2010. "A Comparison Between Probabilistic and Dempster‐Shafer Theory Approaches to Model Uncertainty Analysis in the Performance Assessment of Radioactive Waste Repositories," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(7), pages 1139-1156, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Compare, M. & Baraldi, P. & Bani, I. & Zio, E. & Mc Donnell, D., 2017. "Development of a Bayesian multi-state degradation model for up-to-date reliability estimations of working industrial components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 25-40.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Shapiro, A.F. & Terraza, M., 2014. "CAPM with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 40-57.
    2. Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Terraza, M., 2012. "Fuzzy risk adjusted performance measures: Application to hedge funds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 702-712.
    3. Rachida Hennani & Michel Terraza, 2012. "Value-at-Risk stressée chaotique d’un portefeuille bancaire," Working Papers 12-23, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Sep 2012.
    4. Alfred Mbairadjim Moussa & Jules Sadefo Kamdem & Arnold F. Shapiro & Michel Terraza, 2012. "Capital asset pricing model with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing," Working Papers 12-33, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Sep 2012.
    5. Li, Yanfu & Zio, Enrico, 2012. "Uncertainty analysis of the adequacy assessment model of a distributed generation system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 235-244.
    6. Gholamreza Hesamian & Jalal Chachi, 2015. "Two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov fuzzy test for fuzzy random variables," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-82, February.
    7. Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Terraza, M., 2014. "Fuzzy value-at-risk and expected shortfall for portfolios with heavy-tailed returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 247-256.
    8. Alfred Mbairadjim Moussa & Jules Sadefo Kamdem, 2022. "A fuzzy multifactor asset pricing model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1221-1241, June.
    9. Bjørnsen, Kjartan & Selvik, Jon Tømmerås & Aven, Terje, 2019. "A semi-quantitative assessment process for improved use of the expected value of information measure in safety management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 494-502.
    10. Hussein Khraibani & Bilal Nehme & Olivier Strauss, 2018. "Interval Estimation of Value-at-Risk Based on Nonparametric Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-30, December.
    11. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    12. Matteo Vagnoli & Francesco Di Maio & Enrico Zio, 2018. "Ensembles of climate change models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 232(2), pages 185-200, April.
    13. Gia Sirbiladze & Irina Khutsishvili & Otar Badagadze & Mikheil Kapanadze, 2016. "More Precise Decision-Making Methodology in the Temporalized Body of Evidence. Application in the Information Technology Management," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(06), pages 1469-1502, November.
    14. Baud, Céline & Lallemand-Stempak, Nathalie, 2024. "Quantitative technologies and reflexivity: The role of tools and their layouts in the case of credit risk management," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    15. Qiu, S. & Rachedi, N. & Sallak, M. & Vanderhaegen, F., 2017. "A quantitative model for the risk evaluation of driver-ADAS systems under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 184-191.
    16. Ripamonti, G. & Lonati, G. & Baraldi, P. & Cadini, F. & Zio, E., 2013. "Uncertainty propagation in a model for the estimation of the ground level concentration of dioxin/furans emitted from a waste gasification plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 98-105.
    17. Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio, 2013. "Uncertainty Analysis in Fault Tree Models with Dependent Basic Events," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1146-1173, June.
    18. de Andrés-Sánchez, Jorge & González-Vila Puchades, Laura, 2017. "The valuation of life contingencies: A symmetrical triangular fuzzy approximation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 83-94.
    19. Tu Duong Le Duy & Laurence Dieulle & Dominique Vasseur & Christophe Bérenguer & Mathieu Couplet, 2013. "An alternative comprehensive framework using belief functions for parameter and model uncertainty analysis in nuclear probabilistic risk assessment applications," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(5), pages 471-490, October.
    20. Colubi, Ana & Ramos-Guajardo, Ana Belén, 2023. "Fuzzy sets and (fuzzy) random sets in Econometrics and Statistics," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 84-98.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:227:y:2013:i:3:p:267-278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.