IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/risrel/v224y2010i3p217-224.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Approach to assess the occurrence probability of a long-term evolution scenario of a long-lived nuclear waste repository

Author

Listed:
  • H Chraibi
  • S Pierlot

Abstract

The building of a deep geological repository for the management of long-lived radioactive waste requires the implementation of a structure that allows the storage cells and the galleries to be closed after the waste packages have been put into place. These structures are known as ‘seals’ and they play an important role in demonstrating that the repository will not have any effect on people or the environment over the long term. Therefore, assessing how these seals can fail is needed to determine the feasibility of a long-lived, highly radioactive waste repository. Traditionally, safety assessments in the area of nuclear waste are deterministic and therefore overestimate the consequences of failure as they are based on the least favourable hypotheses. The current paper puts forward a complementary approach to determine the probability of occurrence of a ‘sealing fault’ scenario and shows how it has been applied on the basis of expert opinion and Bayesian networks. This work is based on research carried out by ANDRA (the French National Radioactive Waste Management Agency), which is presented in its report Dossier 2005 . This report uses a conservative deterministic approach and demonstrates that the sealing fault scenario would not lead to harmful consequences. The present paper adds to the findings of this report by evaluating the probability of occurrence of this scenario based on an expert assessment. Due to the time scales and the related uncertainties, the evaluation of the probability of occurrence of the sealing fault is delicate. Thus, the limits to this exercise and possible improvements are also presented herein.

Suggested Citation

  • H Chraibi & S Pierlot, 2010. "Approach to assess the occurrence probability of a long-term evolution scenario of a long-lived nuclear waste repository," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 224(3), pages 217-224, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:224:y:2010:i:3:p:217-224
    DOI: 10.1243/1748006XJRR269
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1243/1748006XJRR269
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1243/1748006XJRR269?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Chang-Ju & Lee, Kun Jai, 2006. "Application of Bayesian network to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(5), pages 515-532.
    2. מחקר - ביטוח לאומי, 2006. "Summary for 2005," Working Papers 29, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. MacCarty, Nordica A. & Bryden, Kenneth Mark, 2016. "An integrated systems model for energy services in rural developing communities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 536-557.
    2. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clarke, Damian & Mühlrad, Hanna & Palme, Mårten, 2021. "Health and Labor Market Impacts of Twin Birth : Evidence from a Swedish IVF Policy Mandate," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1391, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. N. N., 2005. "60th Euroconstruct Conference: The Prospects for the European Construction Market 2006-2008. Summary Report," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25838.
    4. Lei Jin & Nicholas Chrisatakis, 2009. "Investigating the mechanism of marital mortality reduction: The transition to widowhood and quality of health care," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(3), pages 605-625, August.
    5. Ankit Gupta & Hemant Bherwani & Sneha Gautam & Saima Anjum & Kavya Musugu & Narendra Kumar & Avneesh Anshul & Rakesh Kumar, 2021. "Air pollution aggravating COVID-19 lethality? Exploration in Asian cities using statistical models," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 6408-6417, April.
    6. Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, 2015. "The South African Sunflower Complex," BFAP Reports 279776, Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), BFAP Reports.
    7. Hristovska, Tatjana & Watkins, K. Bradley & Anders, Merle M., 2012. "An Economic Risk Analysis of No-till Management for the Rice-Soybean Rotation System used in Arkansas," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119676, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Nicholas W Calderone, 2012. "Insect Pollinated Crops, Insect Pollinators and US Agriculture: Trend Analysis of Aggregate Data for the Period 1992–2009," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(5), pages 1-27, May.
    9. Alexa Spence & Wouter Poortinga & Nick Pidgeon, 2012. "The Psychological Distance of Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(6), pages 957-972, June.
    10. Crouse, Dan L. & Ross, Nancy A. & Goldberg, Mark S., 2009. "Double burden of deprivation and high concentrations of ambient air pollution at the neighbourhood scale in Montreal, Canada," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 971-981, September.
    11. Schepelmann, Philipp & Goossens, Yanne & Makipaa, Arttu (ed.), 2009. "Towards sustainable development: Alternatives to GDP for measuring progress," Wuppertal Spezial, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, volume 42, number 42.
    12. Caplan, Arthur J. & Acharya, Ramjee, 2019. "Optimal vehicle use in the presence of episodic mobile-source air pollution," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-204.
    13. Borrett, Stuart R. & Sheble, Laura & Moody, James & Anway, Evan C., 2018. "Bibliometric review of ecological network analysis: 2010–2016," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 382(C), pages 63-82.
    14. William Hynes & Patrick Holden, 2012. "What future for the Global Aid for Trade Initiative? Towards a fairer assessment of its achievements and limitations," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp421, IIIS.
    15. Cho, Jaesung & Tauer, Loren W. & Schukken, Ynte H. & Smith, Rebecca L. & Lu, Zhao & Grohn, Yrjo T., 2011. "Compartment Model for Controlling Infectious Livestock Disease: Cost-Effective Control Strategies for Johne's Disease In Dairy Herds," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103393, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Natina Yaduma & Mika Kortelainen & Ada Wossink, 2013. "Estimating Mortality and Economic Costs of Particulate Air Pollution in Developing Countries: The Case of Nigeria," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 361-387, March.
    17. Damm, Yannic Rudá & Börner, Jan & Gerber, Nicolas, 2021. "Health Effects of the Amazon Soy Moratorium," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315401, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Federico Ciliberto & GianCarlo Moschini & Edward D. Perry, 2019. "Valuing product innovation: genetically engineered varieties in US corn and soybeans," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 50(3), pages 615-644, September.
    19. Marzoughi, Hassan & Kennedy, P. Lynn & Hilbun, Brian M., 2008. "Impact of Corn Based Ethanol Production on the U.S. High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) and Sugar Markets," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6792, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    20. Pedro Pablo Cardoso & Andrew Swan & Ronaldo Mendes, 2018. "Exploring the key issues and stakeholders associated with the application of rainwater systems within the Amazon Region," Post-Print hal-01856582, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:224:y:2010:i:3:p:217-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.