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Cascade Effects in Heterogeneous Populations

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  • Daniel B. Neill

    (Department of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University, neill@cs.cmu.edu)

Abstract

We present a model of sequential choice which explains the emergence and persistence of unpopular, inefficient behavioral norms in society. We model individuals as naïve Bayesian norm followers, rational agents whose subjective expected utility is increased by adherence to an established norm. Agents use Bayesian reasoning to combine their private preferences and prior beliefs with empirical observations of others’ decisions. When agents must infer the preferences of others from observation, this can result in negative cascades, causing the majority of agents to choose a dispreferred action (because they believe, incorrectly, that they are following the majority preference). We demonstrate that negative cascades can result even when the degree of conformity is relatively low, and under a wide range of conditions (including heterogeneity in preferences, priors, and impact of public opinion). This allows us to present a general model of how rational norm-following behavior can occur, and how unpopular norms might emerge, in real populations with heterogeneous preferences and beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel B. Neill, 2005. "Cascade Effects in Heterogeneous Populations," Rationality and Society, , vol. 17(2), pages 191-241, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ratsoc:v:17:y:2005:i:2:p:191-241
    DOI: 10.1177/1043463105051633
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David A. Siegel, 2009. "Social Networks and Collective Action," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 122-138, January.
    2. Wenjie Dai & Xin Wang & Zengru Di & Jinshan Wu, 2014. "Logical Gaps in the Approximate Solutions of the Social Learning Game and an Exact Solution," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, December.

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