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Beliefs, Rational Choice And Bayesian Learning

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  • Richard Breen

Abstract

People act in the light of their beliefs, yet sociological theories of action have been weak in explaining why people hold the beliefs they do. I propose a means of integrating beliefs into rational choice theory using a Bayesian learning model in which people act in accordance with the beliefs they hold about the world. By observing the outcomes of their actions they modify their beliefs. This approach, in contrast with many others, recognizes that beliefs evolve in the light of experience. The approach is applied to show how the evolution of beliefs about the returns to effort in education can give rise to observed patterns of class differences in educational expectations and so to class differences in mobility chances, at least as these are mediated through educational attainment. I discuss the general issue of learning in the Bayesian approach and outline some limitations and areas of further research.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Breen, 1999. "Beliefs, Rational Choice And Bayesian Learning," Rationality and Society, , vol. 11(4), pages 463-479, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ratsoc:v:11:y:1999:i:4:p:463-479
    DOI: 10.1177/104346399011004005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Javier G. Polavieja & Lucinda Platt, 2010. "Girls like pink: Explaining sex-typed occupational aspirations amongst young children," Working Papers 2010-19, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
    2. Sällström, Susanna & Sjogren, Anna, 2002. "Trapped, Delayed and Handicapped," CEPR Discussion Papers 3335, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Anton B Andersson & Carlo Barone & Martin Hällsten, 2023. "Are upper-secondary track decisions risky? Evidence from Sweden on the assumptions of risk-aversion models," Rationality and Society, , vol. 35(3), pages 311-337, August.
    4. Atsushi Ishida, 2018. "A Bayesian Analysis of Income Distribution Image," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(2), pages 21582440187, May.
    5. Anders Hjorth-Trolle, 2018. "Beliefs, parental investments, and intergenerational persistence: A formal model," Rationality and Society, , vol. 30(1), pages 108-154, February.
    6. Robert Oxoby, "undated". "Social Inference and Occupational Choice: Type-Based Biases in a Bayesian Model of Class Formation," Working Papers 2009-07, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 11 Jan 2009.
    7. Anders Holm & Mads Meier Jæger, 2005. "Relative Risk Aversion and Social Reproduction in Intergenerational Educational Attainment: Application of a Dynamic Discrete Choice Mode," CAM Working Papers 2006-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
    8. Giovanni Abbiati & Carlo Barone, 2017. "Is university education worth the investment? The expectations of upper secondary school seniors and the role of family background," Rationality and Society, , vol. 29(2), pages 113-159, May.
    9. Dominik Becker, 2013. "The impact of teachers’ expectations on students’ educational opportunities in the life course: An empirical test of a subjective expected utility explanation," Rationality and Society, , vol. 25(4), pages 422-469, November.
    10. Tamás Keller, 2018. "Dare to Dream: A Vignette Survey on Self-Selection in Secondary Education Track Choice," Sociological Research Online, , vol. 23(2), pages 354-373, June.
    11. J. François Outreville, 2015. "The Relationship Between Relative Risk Aversion And The Level Of Education: A Survey And Implications For The Demand For Life Insurance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 97-111, February.
    12. Keller, Tamás, 2016. "Ha a jegyek nem elég jók... Az önértékelés szerepe a felsőoktatásba való jelentkezésben [Self-assessment and its effects on applications for tertiary education]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 62-78.
    13. Óscar Landerretche & Nicolás Lillo, 2011. "Percepciones sobre Movilidad Social y Meritocracia: Un Estudio para Chile Usando la Encuesta de Trabajo y Equidad," Working Papers wp331, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    14. Mads Meier Jæger, 2007. "Economic and Social Returns To Educational Choices," Rationality and Society, , vol. 19(4), pages 451-483, November.
    15. J. Francois Outreville, 2014. "Risk Aversion, Risk Behavior, and Demand for Insurance: A Survey," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 158-186.
    16. Ramanjini & Karnam Gayithri, 2019. "Who benefits from higher education expenditure? Evidence from recent household survey of India," Working Papers 454, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    17. Hardaker, J. Brian & Fleming, Euan M. & Lien, Gudbrand D., 2008. "Risk in Public Policy Making: A Neglected Issue in Australia," 2008 Conference (52nd), February 5-8, 2008, Canberra, Australia 5997, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    18. Mads M. Jæger & Anders Holm, 2012. "Conformists or rebels? Relative risk aversion, educational decisions and social class reproduction," Rationality and Society, , vol. 24(2), pages 221-253, May.

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