IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/niesru/v234y2015i1pr40-r47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy in UK Government Debt Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Jack Meaning
  • James Warren

Abstract

Through its quantitative easing programme the Bank of England has looked to manage the supply of nominal UK government securities in order to lower interest rates. In doing so it has removed more than 25 per cent of the overall supply of those securities from the publicly accessible market. The benchmark New Keynesian model suggests this should only have an impact on interest rates insofar as it affects expectations of future policy rates, whilst alternative theoretical frameworks imply a direct effect of changes in supply onto yields. Our aim is to test for the existence of these potential transmission mechanisms. We find empirical evidence to support the existence of both channels. Our analysis suggests the Bank's quantitative easing programme reduced yields by around 25 basis points through the supply channel alone. Importantly, we find that such supply effects have remained significant in recent years, suggesting that as quantitative easing is unwound the increase in publicly available supply will put upward pressure on interest rates. Lastly we highlight the monetary-fiscal interaction inherent in our result and discuss some of the issues it raises for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack Meaning & James Warren, 2015. "The Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy in UK Government Debt Markets," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 234(1), pages 40-47, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:234:y:2015:i:1:p:r40-r47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ner.sagepub.com/content/234/1/R40.abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefania D’Amico & William English & David López‐Salido & Edward Nelson, 2012. "The Federal Reserve's Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes: Rationale and Effects," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 415-446, November.
    2. David Miles & Jochen Schanz, 2013. "The Relevance or Otherwise of the Central Bank's Balance Sheet," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, pages 103-116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    4. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-274, June.
    5. Francis Breedon & Jagjit S Chadha & Alex Waters, 2012. "The financial market impact of UK quantitative easing," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 277-304, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Simon Kirby & Jack Meaning, 2015. "The Impacts of the Bank of England's Asset Purchases on the Public Finances," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 232(1), pages 73-78, May.
    7. Francis Breedon & Jagjit S. Chadha & Alex Waters, 2012. "The financial market impact of UK quantitative easing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 702-728, WINTER.
    8. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    9. Nick McLaren & Ryan N. Banerjee & David Latto, 2014. "Using Changes in Auction Maturity Sectors to Help Identify the Impact of QE on Gilt Yields," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(576), pages 453-479, May.
    10. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
    11. Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
    12. Chadha,Jagjit S. & Holly,Sean (ed.), 2015. "Interest Rates, Prices and Liquidity," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107480032, September.
    13. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    14. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    15. Javier Andrés & J. David López Salido & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Tobin's imperfect substitution in optimizing general equilibrium," Working Papers 0409, Banco de España.
    16. Joyce, Michael, 2012. "Quantitative easing and other unconventional monetary policies: Bank of England conference summary," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(1), pages 48-56.
    17. Andrés, Javier & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward, 2004. "Tobin's Imperfect Asset Substitution in Optimizing General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4336, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Jack Meaning & Feng Zhu, 2011. "The impact of recent central bank asset purchase programmes," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wieladek, Tomasz & Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: the story so far," CEPR Discussion Papers 11691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Angus Armstrong, 2017. "Treasury Select Committee Inquiry Into The Effectiveness And Impact Of Post-2008 UK Monetary Policy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Policy Papers 03, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    4. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 200-229.
    5. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    6. Francisco Serranito & Philipp RODERWEIS & Jamel Saadaoui, 2023. "Is Quantitative Easing Productive? The Role of Bank Lending in the Monetary Transmission Process," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Shogbuyi, Abiodun & Steeley, James M., 2017. "The effect of quantitative easing on the variance and covariance of the UK and US equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 281-291.
    8. Smith, Ariel, 2020. "The United Kingdom's Asset Purchase Program (U.K. GFC)," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 2(3), pages 437-458, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    2. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2023. "A global monetary policy factor in sovereign bond yields," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 445-465.
    4. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    5. W. Arrata & B. Nguyen, 2017. "Price impact of bond supply shocks: Evidence from the Eurosystem's asset purchase program," Working papers 623, Banque de France.
    6. Michael A. S. Joyce & Nick McLaren & Chris Young, 2012. "Quantitative easing in the United Kingdom: evidence from financial markets on QE1 and QE2," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 671-701, WINTER.
    7. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    8. Joyce, Michael & Liu, Zhuoshi & Tonks, Ian, 2014. "Institutional investor portfolio allocation, quantitative easing and the global financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 510, Bank of England.
    9. Matteo Falagiarda, 2014. "Evaluating quantitative easing: a DSGE approach," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 302-327.
    10. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2018. "Quantitative easing and sovereign bond yields: a global perspective," Working Papers 253, Bank of Greece.
    11. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St‐Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
    12. Churm, Rohan & Joyce, Michael & Kapetanios, George & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policies and the macroeconomy: The impact of the UK's QE2 and funding for lending scheme," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 721-736.
    13. De Santis, Roberto A. & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric, 2017. "Flow effects of central bank asset purchases on euro area sovereign bond yields: evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 2052, European Central Bank.
    14. Michiel De Pooter & Robert F. Martin & Seth Pruitt & Rebecca DeSimone, 2015. "Cheap Talk and the Efficacy of the ECB’s Securities Market Programme: Did Bond Purchases Matter?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    16. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    17. Andreas Tischbirek, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Currency Union with Segmentation in the Market for Government Debt," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 16.16, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    18. Blattner, Tobias Sebastian & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
    19. Miles, David & Schanz, Jochen, 2014. "Should central banks provide reserves via repos or outright bond purchases?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    quantitative easing; unconventional monetary policy; asset purchases; monetary-fiscal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:234:y:2015:i:1:p:r40-r47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.