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Characterizing Physicians' Perceptions of Ambiguity

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  • Shawn P. Curley
  • Mark J. Young
  • J. Frank Yates

Abstract

Ambiguity, typically characterized as imprecision in judged probabilities, is distinguishable from that uncertainty typically measured using probabilities. It reflects the inadequacy of a point probability judgment and the assumptions upon which it is based. Ambiguity influences both patients' and physicians' decisions, but it is unknown how decision makers conceptualize ambiguity. Toward this goal, properties of three ambiguity indicators were examined: a confidence rating, a plausible range, and an interquartile range. Board-certified internists and fourth-year medical students evaluated simulated cases of suspected coronary artery disease. Their judgments provided insights into the three ambiguity indicators. The distri bution-based interquartile range was largely redundant with the plausible range, and was least adequate. The confidence rating was not equivalent to the plausible range, and ap peared to best reflect the construct of ambiguity as it has been defined. Key words: ambiguity; probability judgments; decision making. (Med Decis Making 1989;9:116-124)

Suggested Citation

  • Shawn P. Curley & Mark J. Young & J. Frank Yates, 1989. "Characterizing Physicians' Perceptions of Ambiguity," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 9(2), pages 116-124, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:9:y:1989:i:2:p:116-124
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8900900206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Curley, Shawn P. & Yates, J. Frank & Abrams, Richard A., 1986. "Psychological sources of ambiguity avoidance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 230-256, October.
    2. Shawn P. Curley & Stephen A. Eraker & J. Frank Yates, 1984. "An Investigation of Patient's Reactions to Therapeutic Uncertainty," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 4(4), pages 501-511, December.
    3. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Kenneth R. Maccrimmon, 1968. "Descriptive and Normative Implications of the Decision-Theory Postulates," International Economic Association Series, in: Karl Borch & Jan Mossin (ed.), Risk and Uncertainty, chapter 0, pages 3-32, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Einhorn, Hillel J & Hogarth, Robin M, 1986. "Decision Making under Ambiguity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 225-250, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. "Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-370, October.

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