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Probabilistic Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness Models: Choosing between Treatment Strategies for Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease

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  • Andrew H. Briggs

    (Health Economics Research Centre, University of Oxford, Institute of Health Sciences, Headington, Oxford, United Kingdom, Centre for Evaluation of Medicines, St Joseph’s Hospital and Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada)

  • Ron Goeree

    (Centre for Evaluation of Medicines, St Joseph’s Hospital and Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada)

  • Gord Blackhouse

    (Centre for Evaluation of Medicines, St Joseph’s Hospital and Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada)

  • Bernie J. O’Brien

    (Centre for Evaluation of Medicines, St Joseph’s Hospital and Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada)

Abstract

When choosing between mutually exclusive treatment options, it is common to construct a cost-effectiveness frontier on the cost-effectiveness plane that represents efficient points from among the treatment choices. Treatment options internal to the frontier are considered inefficient and are excluded either by strict dominance or by appealing to the principle of extended dominance. However, when uncertainty is considered, options excluded under the baseline analysis may form part of the cost-effectiveness frontier. By adopting a Bayesian approach, where distributions for model parameters are specified, uncertainty in the decision concerning which treatment option should be implemented is addressed directly. The approach is illustrated using an example from a recently published cost-effectiveness analysis of different possible treatment strategies for gastroesophageal reflux disease. It is argued that probabilistic analyses should be encouraged because they have potential to quantify the strength of evidence in favor of particular treatment choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew H. Briggs & Ron Goeree & Gord Blackhouse & Bernie J. O’Brien, 2002. "Probabilistic Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness Models: Choosing between Treatment Strategies for Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 22(4), pages 290-308, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:22:y:2002:i:4:p:290-308
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X0202200408
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Eckermann & Andrew Willan, 2011. "Presenting Evidence and Summary Measures to Best Inform Societal Decisions When Comparing Multiple Strategies," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 29(7), pages 563-577, July.
    2. Pedram Sendi, 2008. "Bridging the gap between health and non-health investments: moving from cost-effectiveness analysis to a return on investment approach across sectors of economy," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 113-121, June.
    3. Haitham Tuffaha & Shelley Roberts & Wendy Chaboyer & Louisa Gordon & Paul Scuffham, 2015. "Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis of Nutritional Support for Preventing Pressure Ulcers in High-risk Patients: Implement Now, Research Later," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 167-179, April.
    4. Rachael DiSantostefano & Andrea Biddle & John Lavelle, 2006. "The Long-Term Cost Effectiveness of Treatments for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 171-191, February.
    5. Paula K. Lorgelly & Kenny D. Lawson & Elisabeth A.L. Fenwick & Andrew H. Briggs, 2010. "Outcome Measurement in Economic Evaluations of Public Health Interventions: a Role for the Capability Approach?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-16, May.
    6. Olalekan A Uthman & Taiwo Aderemi Popoola & Mubashir M B Uthman & Olatunde Aremu, 2010. "Economic Evaluations of Adult Male Circumcision for Prevention of Heterosexual Acquisition of HIV in Men in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-7, March.
    7. Karl Claxton & Mark Sculpher & Chris McCabe & Andrew Briggs & Ron Akehurst & Martin Buxton & John Brazier & Tony O'Hagan, 2005. "Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 339-347, April.
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    9. C. Armero & G. García‐Donato & A. López‐Quílez, 2010. "Bayesian methods in cost–effectiveness studies: objectivity, computation and other relevant aspects," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 629-643, June.
    10. Elena Losina & Elizabeth E Dervan & A David Paltiel & Yan Dong & R John Wright & Kurt P Spindler & Lisa A Mandl & Morgan H Jones & Robert G Marx & Clare E Safran-Norton & Jeffrey N Katz, 2015. "Defining the Value of Future Research to Identify the Preferred Treatment of Meniscal Tear in the Presence of Knee Osteoarthritis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    11. Bruce Y Lee & Sarah M McGlone & Rachel R Bailey & Ann E Wiringa & Shanta M Zimmer & Kenneth J Smith & Richard K Zimmerman, 2010. "To Test or to Treat? An Analysis of Influenza Testing and Antiviral Treatment Strategies Using Economic Computer Modeling," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(6), pages 1-11, June.
    12. Rachel Elliott & Helen Weatherly & Neil Hawkins & Gillian Cranny & Duncan Chambers & Lindsey Myers & Alison Eastwood & Mark Sculpher, 2010. "An economic model for the prevention of MRSA infections after surgery: non-glycopeptide or glycopeptide antibiotic prophylaxis?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 11(1), pages 57-66, February.
    13. Salvatore Russo & Stefano Landi & Paolo Landa, 2017. "Management of knee osteoarthritis in Italy. A cost-utility analysis of Platelet-Rich-Plasma dedicated kit versus Hyaluronic acid for the intra-articular treatment of knee OA," Working Papers 08, Venice School of Management - Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
    14. Gafni, Amiram & Birch, Stephen, 2006. "Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs): The silence of the lambda," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 62(9), pages 2091-2100, May.
    15. Helen Dakin & Morris Sherman & Scott Fung & Carrie Fidler & Anthony Bentley, 2011. "Cost Effectiveness of Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate for the Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis B from a Canadian Public Payer Perspective," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 29(12), pages 1075-1091, December.
    16. Anna Heath & Mark Strong & David Glynn & Natalia Kunst & Nicky J. Welton & Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert, 2022. "Simulating Study Data to Support Expected Value of Sample Information Calculations: A Tutorial," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 42(2), pages 143-155, February.
    17. J. Brown & N. J. Welton & C. Bankhead & S. H. Richards & L. Roberts & C. Tydeman & T. J. Peters, 2006. "A Bayesian approach to analysing the cost‐effectiveness of two primary care interventions aimed at improving attendance for breast screening," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 435-445, May.
    18. Steven Edwards & Helen Campbell & Jonathan Plumb, 2006. "Cost-utility analysis comparing meropenem with imipenem plus cilastatin in the treatment of severe infections in intensive care," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 7(1), pages 72-78, March.
    19. Huajie Jin & Paul Tappenden & Stewart Robinson & Evanthia Achilla & David Aceituno & Sarah Byford, 2020. "Systematic review of the methods of health economic models assessing antipsychotic medication for schizophrenia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-18, July.
    20. Hege Urdahl & Andrea Manca & Mark Sculpher, 2006. "Assessing Generalisability in Model-Based Economic Evaluation Studies," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 1181-1197, December.
    21. Judith E Bosmans & Veerle M H Coupé & Bart J Knottnerus & Suzanne E Geerlings & Eric P Moll van Charante & Gerben ter Riet, 2017. "Cost-effectiveness of different strategies for diagnosis of uncomplicated urinary tract infections in women presenting in primary care," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(11), pages 1-16, November.
    22. Martin Henriksson & Fredrik Lundgren & Per Carlsson, 2006. "Informing the efficient use of health care and health care research resources ‐ the case of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Sweden," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(12), pages 1311-1322, December.
    23. Janne Martikainen & Hannu Valtonen & Tuula Pirttilä, 2004. "Potential cost-effectiveness of a family-based program in mild Alzheimer’s disease patients," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 5(2), pages 136-142, May.
    24. Charalabos‐Markos Dintsios & Andreas Gerber, 2010. "Some essential clarifications: IQWiG comments on two critiques of the efficiency frontier approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(10), pages 1139-1141, October.

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