IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jospec/v18y2017i3p298-317.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Uncertainty-of-Outcome Hypothesis and the Industrial Organization of Sports Leagues

Author

Listed:
  • E. Woodrow Eckard

Abstract

The uncertainty-of-outcome hypothesis (UOH) posits that sports fans value competitive contests, implying that competitive imbalance within a league will motivate stronger teams to leave. Testable hypotheses can be formulated utilizing the many college football conference realignments over the last century. The results support the UOH. For example, schools leaving an existing conference to form a new major conference, or join a preexisting one, were on average stronger than their former associates in the years before their departure. Also, the number of seed conference championships won by departing schools generally exceeded their “fair share†under an equal-likelihood assumption.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Woodrow Eckard, 2017. "The Uncertainty-of-Outcome Hypothesis and the Industrial Organization of Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(3), pages 298-317, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:18:y:2017:i:3:p:298-317
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002515576002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1527002515576002
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1527002515576002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allen R. Sanderson & John J. Siegfried, 2003. "Thinking about Competitive Balance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(4), pages 255-279, November.
    2. James Quirk, 2004. "College football conferences and competitive balance," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 63-75.
    3. Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 242-242.
    4. Gary J. Colbert & E. Woodrow Eckard, 2015. "Do Colleges Get What They Pay For? Evidence on Football Coach Pay and Team Performance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 335-352, May.
    5. Anthony C. Krautmann & Young Hoon Lee & Kevin Quinn, 2011. "Playoff Uncertainty and Pennant Races," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(5), pages 495-514, October.
    6. Jason P. Berkowitz & Craig A. Depken II & Dennis P. Wilson, 2011. "When Going in Circles is Going Backward: Outcome Uncertainty in NASCAR," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(3), pages 253-283, June.
    7. E. Eckard, 1998. "The NCAA Cartel and Competitive Balance in College Football," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 13(3), pages 347-369, June.
    8. Cain, Louis P. & Haddock, David D., 2005. "Similar Economic Histories, Different Industrial Structures: Transatlantic Contrasts in the Evolution of Professional Sports Leagues," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(4), pages 1116-1147, December.
    9. P. Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2015. "Competitive Balance Measures In Sports Leagues: The Effects Of Variation In Season Length," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 731-744, January.
    10. Eckard, E. Woodrow, 2005. "Team promotion in early major league baseball and the origin of the closed sports league," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 122-152, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Avila-Cano & Amparo Ruiz-Sepulveda & Francisco Triguero-Ruiz, 2021. "Identifying the Maximum Concentration of Results in Bilateral Sports Competitions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Ira Horowitz, 2018. "Competitive Balance in the NBA Playoffs," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 63(2), pages 215-227, October.
    3. Dorian Owen & Caitlin Owen, 2017. "Simulation Evidence on Herfindahl-Hirschman Indices as Measures of Competitive Balance," Working Papers 1715, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaret Treber & Rachel Levy & Victor A. Matheson, 2013. "Gender differences in competitive balance in intercollegiate basketball," Chapters, in: Eva Marikova Leeds & Michael A. Leeds (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Women in Sports, chapter 12, pages 251-268, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Ira Horowitz, 2018. "Competitive Balance in the NBA Playoffs," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 63(2), pages 215-227, October.
    3. Young Hoon Lee & Yongdai Kim & Sara Kim, 2018. "Unbiased Estimation of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues with Unbalanced Schedules," Working Papers 1801, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    4. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Dominik Schreyer & Sascha L. Schmidt & Benno Torgler, 2018. "Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 19(2), pages 140-161, May.
    6. Brian Mills & Jason Winfree, 2018. "Athlete Pay and Competitive Balance in College Athletics," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(2), pages 211-229, March.
    7. Chris Judde & Ross Booth & Robert Brooks, 2013. "Second Place Is First of the Losers," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 411-439, August.
    8. Steven Salaga & Rodney Fort, 2017. "Structural Change in Competitive Balance in Big-Time College Football," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 50(1), pages 27-41, February.
    9. Nicola Giocoli, 2007. "Competitive balance in football leagues when teams have different goals," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 54(3), pages 345-370, September.
    10. Brian M. Mills & Steven Salaga, 2015. "Historical Time Series Perspectives on Competitive Balance in NCAA Division I Basketball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(6), pages 614-646, August.
    11. Bradbury, John Charles, 2017. "Monopsony and competition: The impact of rival leagues on player salaries during the early days of baseball," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 55-67.
    12. Dorian Owen & Caitlin Owen, 2017. "Simulation Evidence on Herfindahl-Hirschman Indices as Measures of Competitive Balance," Working Papers 1715, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2017.
    13. Yvan J. Kelly, 2008. "Cost Reduction, Competitive Balance, and the Scheduling of Back-to-Back Games in the NBA," Working Papers 0810, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    14. Young Hoon Lee & Yongdai Kim & Sara Kim, 2019. "A Bias-Corrected Estimator of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(4), pages 479-508, May.
    15. Fort, Rodney & Maxcy, Joel & Diehl, Mark, 2016. "Uncertainty by regulation: Rottenberg׳s invariance principle," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 454-467.
    16. Markus LANG & Alexander RATHKE & Marco RUNKEL, 2010. "The Economic Consequences Of Foreigner Rules In National Sports Leagues," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 31, pages 47-64.
    17. Kelly Goossens, 2006. "Competitive balance in european football: comparison by adapting measures: national measure of seasonal imbalance and Top 3," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 2(2), pages 77-122, Dicembre.
    18. Tainsky, Scott & Kerwin, Shannon & Xu, Jie & Zhou, Yilun, 2014. "Will the real fans please remain seated? Gender and television ratings for pre-game and game broadcasts," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 190-204.
    19. Lenten, Liam J.A., 2011. "The extent to which unbalanced schedules cause distortions in sports league tables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 451-458.
    20. Wen-Jhan Jane, 2014. "The Relationship Between Outcome Uncertainties and Match Attendance: New Evidence in the National Basketball Association," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 45(2), pages 177-200, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:18:y:2017:i:3:p:298-317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.