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Uncertainty of Outcome Is Higher in the Champions League Than in the European Cup

Author

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  • Jeroen Schokkaert
  • Johan Swinnen

Abstract

European Cup football has experienced a major change in format with the introduction of the Champions League (CL) in 1992 and a major change in admission rules with direct qualification for multiple teams from the highest ranked leagues in 1999. We show that, in line with popular press reports and other studies, qualification in lower rounds has become more predictable in the CL. At the same time, however, outcomes at later stages have become less predictable. We provide evidence and an explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeroen Schokkaert & Johan Swinnen, 2016. "Uncertainty of Outcome Is Higher in the Champions League Than in the European Cup," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(2), pages 115-147, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:17:y:2016:i:2:p:115-147
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002514521628
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    Cited by:

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    2. László Csató & Dóra Gréta Petróczy, 2024. "Bibliometric indices as a measure of performance and competitive balance in the knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 32(4), pages 961-988, December.
    3. Weber, Shlomo & Moreno-Tenero, Juan, 2019. "The interdependence of domestic and international success: the case of the UEFA Champions League," CEPR Discussion Papers 13927, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Olsson, Martin & Persson, Lars, 2016. "Talent Development and Labour Market Integration: The Case of EU Football," Working Paper Series 1126, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 14 Mar 2018.
    5. Pehr‐Johan Norbäck & Martin Olsson & Lars Persson, 2021. "Talent development and labour market integration in European football," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 367-408, February.
    6. Travis Richardson & Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski, 2023. "Emotional Cues and the Demand for Televised Sports: Evidence from the UEFA Champions League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 993-1025, December.
    7. Oliver Engist & Erik Merkus & Felix Schafmeister, 2021. "The Effect of Seeding on Tournament Outcomes: Evidence From a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 115-136, January.
    8. John Considine & Liam Gallagher, 2018. "Competitive balance in a quasi-double knockout tournament," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(18), pages 2048-2055, April.
    9. Odukorede Odunaiya & Mary Agoyi & Oseyenbhin Sunday Osemeahon, 2020. "Social TV Engagement for Increasing and Sustaining Social TV Viewers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-11, June.
    10. Francisco Triguero‐Ruiz & Antonio Avila‐Cano, 2023. "On competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(3), pages 231-248, July.
    11. L'aszl'o Csat'o, 2023. "Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League: Time for shift to an Elo-based formula," Papers 2304.09078, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    12. Csató, László & Bodnár, Gergely, 2023. "Mérhetnénk jobban a csapatok erejét a Bajnokok Ligájában? Fontos megjegyzés az Európai Labdarúgó-szövetség számára [How to better measure team strength in the Champions League. An important message," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 813-827.

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