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Plots, Attacks, and the Measurement of Terrorism

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  • Thomas Hegghammer
  • Neil Ketchley

Abstract

How should we measure terrorism? Political scientists typically use executed attacks as the dependent variable and test covariates to identify factors that produce terrorism. But attacks are an imperfect measure of terrorist activity because of ‘plot attrition’ — the tendency for plots to derail due to police intervention or other factors. We examine whether the exclusion of foiled plots from event datasets constitutes a measurement problem in terrorism studies. Building on recent advances in plot data collection, we study the correlation between plots and attacks and conduct an original analysis of jihadism in Europe. Our results suggest common research designs predicting terrorism can produce different results depending on whether incidents are operationalized as plots or attacks. Adjusting for state security capability does not solve the problem. Despite its limitations, plot data is a more complete measure of terrorist activity that should be incorporated, when available, in quantitative studies of terrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Hegghammer & Neil Ketchley, 2025. "Plots, Attacks, and the Measurement of Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 69(1), pages 100-126, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:69:y:2025:i:1:p:100-126
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027231221536
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1999. "Distribution-free estimation of some nonlinear panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 77-97, May.
    2. Keefer,Philip & Loayza,Norman (ed.), 2008. "Terrorism, Economic Development, and Political Openness," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521887588, January.
    3. Alan B. Krueger, 2007. "Introduction to What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism," Introductory Chapters, in: What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism, Princeton University Press.
    4. Nauro F. Campos & Martin Gassebner, 2013. "International Terrorism, Domestic Political Instability, and the Escalation Effect," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 27-47, March.
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    Keywords

    terrorism; data; measurement;
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