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Natural Experiments of the Rally 'Round the Flag Effects Using Worldwide Surveys

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  • TaeJun Seo
  • Yusaku Horiuchi

Abstract

The “rally 'round the flag†effect—a short-term boost in a political leader’s popularity during an interstate political dispute—was first proposed by Mueller (1970) more than half a century ago. However, there is no scholarly consensus on its empirical validity and the circumstances under which the effect becomes most prominent. In this paper, based on a natural experimental design, we analyze large-scale worldwide surveys of 34,118 responses and causally identify the effects of 46 militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) on the approval ratings of political leaders in 27 countries. We find that MIDs, on average, decrease public support for national leaders. However, the public backlash could be attenuated depending on theoretically relevant contexts. Our finding implies that political leaders cannot rely on MIDs for public support increases , as they are generally penalized for such decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • TaeJun Seo & Yusaku Horiuchi, 2024. "Natural Experiments of the Rally 'Round the Flag Effects Using Worldwide Surveys," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 68(2-3), pages 269-293, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:68:y:2024:i:2-3:p:269-293
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027231171310
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holman, Mirya R. & Merolla, Jennifer L. & Zechmeister, Elizabeth J., 2022. "The Curious Case of Theresa May and the Public That Did Not Rally: Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks Can Cause Slumps Not Bumps," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 249-264, February.
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