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The Curious Case of Theresa May and the Public That Did Not Rally: Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks Can Cause Slumps Not Bumps

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  • HOLMAN, MIRYA R.
  • MEROLLA, JENNIFER L.
  • ZECHMEISTER, ELIZABETH J.

Abstract

Terrorist attacks routinely produce rallies for incumbent men in the executive office. With scarce cases, there has been little consideration of terrorism’s consequences for evaluations of sitting women executives. Fusing research on rallies with scholarship on women in politics, we derive a gender-revised framework wherein the public will be less inclined to rally around women when terrorists attack. A critical case is UK Prime Minister Theresa May, a right-leaning incumbent with security experience. Employing a natural experiment, we demonstrate that the public fails to rally after the 2017 Manchester Arena attack. Instead, evaluations of May decrease, with sharp declines among those holding negatives views about women. We further show May’s party loses votes in areas closer to the attack. We then find support for the argument in a multinational test. We conclude that conventional theory on rally events requires revision: women leaders cannot count on rallies following major terrorist attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Holman, Mirya R. & Merolla, Jennifer L. & Zechmeister, Elizabeth J., 2022. "The Curious Case of Theresa May and the Public That Did Not Rally: Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks Can Cause Slumps Not Bumps," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 249-264, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:116:y:2022:i:1:p:249-264_17
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    Cited by:

    1. Holman, Mirya R. & Merolla, Jennifer L. & Zechmeister, Elizabeth J., 2023. "Response to "On the Empirical Validity of 'Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks Can Cause Slumps not Bumps'"," I4R Discussion Paper Series 44, The Institute for Replication (I4R), revised 2023.
    2. Ignacio Lago & André Blais, 2022. "Floods, terrorist attacks and the covid-19 pandemic: How the (de)centralization of power affects the rally around the flag," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 2208, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    3. Jetter, Michael & Stockley, Kieran, 2023. "On the Empirical Validity of "Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks Can Cause Slumps not Bumps" (Holman et al., 2022)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 41, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    4. TaeJun Seo & Yusaku Horiuchi, 2024. "Natural Experiments of the Rally 'Round the Flag Effects Using Worldwide Surveys," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 68(2-3), pages 269-293, March.

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