IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v67y2023i7-8p1296-1324.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Costs and Cover: Explaining the Onset of Ceasefires in Civil Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Govinda Clayton
  • HÃ¥vard Mokleiv NygÃ¥rd
  • Siri A. Rustad
  • HÃ¥vard Strand

Abstract

Ceasefires are common in civil conflict. Yet we have surprisingly little comparative analysis of why and under what conditions they occur. A ceasefire provides temporary relief from the costs of conflict, but also generates its own costs. Building on this logic, we argue that conflict parties are more likely to accept the costs associated with a ceasefire when the conflict costs are greater, in particular, when: violence is intense; there are higher levels of ‘collateral damage’; and the parties lack international support. Second, we contend that ceasefires are also more likely in those periods in which the audience costs associated with entering into an arrangement are lower, specifically, when the parties have some form of ‘political cover’, such as during mediation. We find support for both arguments in an analysis of a new dataset capturing all ceasefire in civil conflict from 1989-2020, using a series of dyad fixed effect models.

Suggested Citation

  • Govinda Clayton & HÃ¥vard Mokleiv NygÃ¥rd & Siri A. Rustad & HÃ¥vard Strand, 2023. "Costs and Cover: Explaining the Onset of Ceasefires in Civil Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(7-8), pages 1296-1324, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:7-8:p:1296-1324
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027221129195
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027221129195
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00220027221129195?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefano Costalli & Luigi Moretti & Costantino Pischedda, 2017. "The economic costs of civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 54(1), pages 80-98, January.
    2. Wood, Reed M. & Kathman, Jacob D., 2014. "Too Much of a Bad Thing? Civilian Victimization and Bargaining in Civil War," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 685-706, July.
    3. Joshua D. Kertzer & Ryan Brutger, 2016. "Decomposing Audience Costs: Bringing the Audience Back into Audience Cost Theory," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(1), pages 234-249, January.
    4. Stefano Costalli & Luigi Moretti & Costantino Pischedda, 2014. "The Economic Costs of Civil War: Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence and the Effects of Ethnic Fractionalization," HiCN Working Papers 184, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Jakana Thomas, 2014. "Rewarding Bad Behavior: How Governments Respond to Terrorism in Civil War," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(4), pages 804-818, October.
    6. Reese, Michael J. & Ruby, Keven G. & Pape, Robert A., 2017. "Days of Action or Restraint? How the Islamic Calendar Impacts Violence," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 439-459, August.
    7. Luke N. Condra & Joseph H. Felter & Radha K. Iyengar & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2010. "The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq," NBER Working Papers 16152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samer Matta & Michael Bleaney & Simon Appleton, 2022. "The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 253-270, March.
    2. Martin Philipp Heger & Eric Neumayer, 2022. "Economic legacy effects of armed conflict: Insights from the civil war in Aceh, Indonesia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(4), pages 394-421, July.
    3. Diop, Samba & Asongu, Simplice & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," MPRA Paper 110696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Panel, Sophie & Pietri, Antoine, 2022. "God did not save the kings: Environmental consequences of the 1982 Falklands War," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    5. Patricia Lynne Sullivan & Johannes Karreth, 2019. "Strategies and Tactics in Armed Conflict: How Governments and Foreign Interveners Respond to Insurgent Threats," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(9), pages 2207-2232, October.
    6. Michael Gibilisco & Brenton Kenkel & Miguel R. Rueda, 2022. "Competition and Civilian Victimization," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(4-5), pages 809-835, May.
    7. Aleksandar Kešeljević & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 671-703, February.
    8. Bardwell Harrison & Iqbal Mohib, 2021. "The Economic Impact of Terrorism from 2000 to 2018," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 227-261, May.
    9. Julia Bluszcz & Marica Valente, 2022. "The Economic Costs of Hybrid Wars: The Case of Ukraine," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-25, January.
    10. Kirssa Cline Ryckman & Jessica Maves Braithwaite, 2020. "Changing horses in midstream: Leadership changes and the civil war peace process," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(1), pages 83-105, January.
    11. Alou Adessé Dama, 2021. "Exploring Tilly’s Theory : Violent Conflicts and Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers hal-03401539, HAL.
    12. Robert Ulrich Nagel, 2021. "Gendered preferences: How women’s inclusion in society shapes negotiation occurrence in intrastate conflicts," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 433-448, May.
    13. Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska, 2016. "Reassessing the Economic Effects of Post-Socialist Constitutions Using the Synthetic Control Method," Working Papers 2016-18, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    14. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Javed Younas, 2016. "Conflicts and domestic bank lending," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 315-331, December.
    15. Josh Matti, 2024. "The Long‐Term Economic Impact of Abenomics: Evidence from the Synthetic Control Method," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 43(1), pages 10-33, March.
    16. Jürgen Brandsch & André Python, 2021. "Provoking Ordinary People: The Effects of Terrorism on Civilian Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(1), pages 135-165, January.
    17. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    18. Moyer, Jonathan D., 2023. "Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    19. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    20. Farah-Yacoub,Juan P. & Graf Von Luckner,Clemens Mathis Henrik & Ramalho,Rita & Reinhart,Carmen M., 2022. "The Social Costs of Sovereign Default," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10157, The World Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:7-8:p:1296-1324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.