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Jumping on the Bandwagon: Differentiation and Security Defection during Conflict

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  • Christoph Dworschak

Abstract

When confronted with mass uprisings, governments deploy their security forces for crowd control or repression. However, sometimes security agencies choose to side with the opposition movement. Recent work shows that “fragmentation†contributes to defection: fragmenting the security forces into parallel units leads to oversight problems and grievances among soldiers, which raises the risk of members of the security forces defecting to the opposition movement. However, I argue that the effect on defection is strongly moderated by the circumstances under which states choose to fragment their military: fragmentation for the purpose of security specialization, called “differentiation,†even decreases its risk. Employing Bayesian multilevel modeling, the findings corroborate this distinction. The study contributes to the fundamental discussion on civil–military relations, shedding light on why some conflict situations see security defections while others do not. Understanding this phenomenon is a pivotal element to explaining how conflicts develop, escalate, and end.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Dworschak, 2020. "Jumping on the Bandwagon: Differentiation and Security Defection during Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(7-8), pages 1335-1357, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:64:y:2020:i:7-8:p:1335-1357
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002720904763
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maggie Dwyer, 2015. "Tactical Communication: Mutiny as a Dialogue in West and Central Africa," Africa Spectrum, Institute of African Affairs, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 50(1), pages 5-23.
    2. Chen, Daniel L., 2016. "The Deterrent Effect of the Death Penalty? Evidence from British Commutations During World War I," TSE Working Papers 16-706, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Feb 2020.
    3. Philipp M. Lutscher, 2016. "The More Fragmented the Better?—The Impact of Armed Forces Structure on Defection during Nonviolent Popular Uprisings," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 350-375, March.
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