IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v61y2017i5p1021-1045.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Wealth, Post-conflict Elections, and Postwar Peace Failure

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Keels

Abstract

New research has emerged that suggests there is a troubling relationship between elections and civil wars; primarily, elections increase the risk of civil war recurrence. I investigate this relationship further by examining the economic factors associated with the connection between postwar elections and peace failure. Specifically, how does the presence of oil wealth impact the risk posed by postwar elections. Drawing on previous findings in the democratization literature, I suggest the immobility of oil wealth dramatically increases the stakes associated with postwar elections. As postwar elites use irregular electioneering to consolidate their control of oil revenue, it increases the incentives for postwar opposition to use violence as a means to achieve their objectives. Using post-civil war data from 1945 to 2005, I demonstrate that postwar elections that occur in oil-rich economies dramatically decrease the durability of postwar peace. Once controlling for petro elections, though, I demonstrate that subsequent postwar elections actually increase the durability of postwar peace.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Keels, 2017. "Oil Wealth, Post-conflict Elections, and Postwar Peace Failure," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(5), pages 1021-1045, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:61:y:2017:i:5:p:1021-1045
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002715595702
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002715595702
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002715595702?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Davenport & David A. Armstrong, 2004. "Democracy and the Violation of Human Rights: A Statistical Analysis from 1976 to 1996," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 538-554, July.
    2. Madhav Joshi & T. David Mason, 2011. "Civil War Settlements, Size of Governing Coalition, and Durability of Peace in Post--Civil War States," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 388-413, October.
    3. Hartzell, Caroline & Hoddie, Matthew & Rothchild, Donald, 2001. "Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 183-208, January.
    4. Morrison, Kevin M., 2009. "Oil, Nontax Revenue, and the Redistributional Foundations of Regime Stability," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 107-138, January.
    5. Jensen, Nathan M., 2003. "Democratic Governance and Multinational Corporations: Political Regimes and Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 587-616, July.
    6. Hegre, Håvard, 2001. "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(1), pages 33-48, March.
    7. Benjamin Smith, 2004. "Oil Wealth and Regime Survival in the Developing World, 1960–1999," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(2), pages 232-246, April.
    8. Paul Collier, 0. "Post-conflict Recovery: How Should Strategies Be Distinctive?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(suppl_1), pages -131.
    9. Tim Büthe & Helen V. Milner, 2008. "The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 741-762, October.
    10. Autesserre, Séverine, 2009. "Hobbes and the Congo: Frames, Local Violence, and International Intervention," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 249-280, April.
    11. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Madhav Joshi & Jason Michael Quinn, 2020. "Civil war termination and foreign direct investment, 1989–2012," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(4), pages 451-470, July.
    2. Adedokun, Ayokunu, 2017. "Post-conflict peacebuilding: A critical survey of the literature and avenues for future research," MERIT Working Papers 2017-016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Chi-Swian Wong, 2021. "Science Mapping: A Scientometric Review on Resource Curses, Dutch Diseases, and Conflict Resources during 1993–2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-48, July.
    4. Krista Wiegand & Eric Keels, 2019. "Oil Wealth, Winning Coalitions, and Duration of Civil Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(4), pages 1077-1105, April.
    5. Thomas Edward Flores & Irfan Nooruddin, 2009. "Democracy under the Gun Understanding Postconflict Economic Recovery," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(1), pages 3-29, February.
    6. Thomas Edward Flores & Irfan Nooruddin, 2011. "Credible Commitment in Post-Conflict Recovery," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 23, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Soumyajit Mazumder, 2016. "Can I stay a BIT longer? The effect of bilateral investment treaties on political survival," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 477-521, December.
    8. Rana, Arslan Tariq & Kebewar, Mazen, 2014. "The Political Economy of FDI flows into Developing Countries: Does the depth of International Trade Agreements Matter?," EconStor Preprints 91501, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Bayer, Patrick & Marcoux, Christopher & Urpelainen, Johannes, 2013. "Leveraging private capital for climate mitigation: Evidence from the Clean Development Mechanism," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 14-24.
    10. Jacqueline H.R. DeMeritt & Joseph K Young, 2013. "A political economy of human rights: Oil, natural gas, and state incentives to repress1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(2), pages 99-120, April.
    11. Andrew G Ross & Maktoba Omar & Anqi Xu & Samikshya Pandey, 2019. "The impact of institutional quality on Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 34(6), pages 572-588, September.
    12. Anna K Johnson & Joséphine Lechartre & Şehrazat G Mart & Mark D Robison & Caroline Hughes, 2023. "Peace scholarship and the local turn: Hierarchies in the production of knowledge about peace," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(4), pages 675-690, July.
    13. Fenja Søndergaard Møller, 2019. "Blue blood or true blood: Why are levels of intrastate armed conflict so low in Middle Eastern monarchies?," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(5), pages 517-544, September.
    14. Basedau, Matthias & Lacher, Wolfram, 2006. "A Paradox of Plenty? Rent Distribution and Political Stability in Oil States," GIGA Working Papers 21, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    15. Eduardo Henrique de Borba & Ana Paula Menezes Pereira, 2020. "Political environment and attraction of foreign direct investment: an institutionalist approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 837-845.
    16. Ishak Phoebe W., 2019. "Autocratic Survival Strategies: Does Oil Make a Difference?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-22, May.
    17. Maekawa, Wakako, 2024. "United Nations peacekeeping operations and multilateral foreign aid: Credibility of good governance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    18. Wegenast, Tim, 2010. "Inclusive Institutions and the Onset of Internal Conflict in Resource-rich Countries," GIGA Working Papers 126, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    19. Bodea, Cristina & Higashijima, Masaaki & Singh, Raju Jan, 2016. "Oil and Civil Conflict: Can Public Spending Have a Mitigation Effect?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-12.
    20. Larissa Nawo & Désiré Avom & Kyle McNabb & Luc Nembot, 2019. "Unofficial sovereign wealth funds and duration in power in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-57, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:61:y:2017:i:5:p:1021-1045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.