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After 9/11

Author

Listed:
  • Walter Enders

    (Department of Economics, Finance, and Legal Studies, University of Alabama)

  • Todd Sandler

    (School of International Relations, University of Southern California)

Abstract

Using time-series procedures, the authors investigate whether transnational terrorism changed following 9/11 and the subsequent U.S.-led “war on terror.†Perhaps surprising, little has changed in the time series of overall incidents and most of its component series. When 9/11 is prejudged as a break date, the authors find that logistically complex hostage-taking events have fallen as a proportion of all events, while logistically simple, but deadly, bombings have increased as a proportion of deadly incidents. These results hold when they apply the Bai-Perron procedure in which structural breaks are data identified. This procedure locates earlier breaks in the mid-1970s and 1990s. Reasonable out-of-sample forecasts are possible if structural breaks are incorporated fairly rapidly into the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2005. "After 9/11," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(2), pages 259-277, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:49:y:2005:i:2:p:259-277
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002704272864
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Todd Sandler, 2003. "Collective Action and Transnational Terrorism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 779-802, June.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(3), pages 307-332, June.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    5. Sandler, Todd & Enders, Walter, 2004. "An economic perspective on transnational terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-316, June.
    6. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1823, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T. & Cauley, Jon, 1983. "A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 36-54, March.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    9. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1993. "The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(4), pages 829-844, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heidi Kaila & Saurabh Singhal & Divya Tuteja, 2017. "Do fences make good neighbours? Evidence from an insurgency in India," WIDER Working Paper Series 158, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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