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Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Author

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  • SEAN P. O'BRIEN

    (Department of the U.S. Army Center for Army Analysisobrien@caa.army.mil)

Abstract

One way to demonstrate progress in a field of scientific inquiry is to show that factors believed to explain some phenomenon can also be used effectively to predict both its occurrence and its nonoccurrence. This study draws on the state strength literature to identify relevant country macrostructural factors that can contribute to different kinds and levels of intensity of conflict and country instabilities. A pattern classification algorithm—fuzzy analysis of statistical evidence (FASE)—is used to analyze the relationships between country macrostructural factors and historical instances of country instability. A split-sample validation design is used to evaluate the ability of FASE to generate competent predictions, using the standard forecasting performance metrics overall accuracy, recall , and precision . The results demonstrate the potential for FASE to accurately forecast not just the occurrence but also the level of intensity of country-specific instabilities out 5 years with about 80% overall accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sean P. O'Brien, 2002. "Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(6), pages 791-811, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:46:y:2002:i:6:p:791-811
    DOI: 10.1177/002200202237929
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2002. "The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 74-90, February.
    2. Beck, Nathaniel & King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2000. "Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(1), pages 21-35, March.
    3. Muller, Edward N. & Seligson, Mitchell A., 1987. "Inequality and Insurgency," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(2), pages 425-451, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bodea, Cristina & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 2008. "Political violence and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4692, The World Bank.

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