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The Determinants of Democratic Transitions

Author

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  • Yi Feng
  • Paul J. Zak

    (School of Politics and Economics, Claremont Graduate University)

Abstract

A formal dynamic theory of the transition from a developing autocracy to democracy is presented in the context of a heterogeneous agent general equilibrium growth model. The theory shows that the primary determinants affecting the timing of democratic transitions are per capita income, the distribution of wealth, educational levels, and the strength of preferences for political rights and civil liberties. The implications of the theory are tested by estimating a proportional hazard function to determine the probability of a democratic transition at a particular point in time. The empirics demonstrate strong support for the model in an estimation of 75 countries during the postwar period.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Feng & Paul J. Zak, 1999. "The Determinants of Democratic Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(2), pages 162-177, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:43:y:1999:i:2:p:162-177
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002799043002003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Luca Correani, 2005. "Fundamentalist attitudes and the export of democracy," Development and Comp Systems 0501011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Chun, Natalie & Hasan, Rana & Rahman, Muhammad Habibur & Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet A., 2016. "The role of middle class in democratic diffusion," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 536-548.
    4. Houda Haffoudhi & Racem Mehdi & Gam Abdelkader, 2015. "Understanding Democratic Transition Using Self-Organizing Maps: a Special Focus on Arab Spring Countries," Working Papers 958, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2015.
    5. Luca Correani, 2016. "Fundamentalism and Democracy: A Dynamic Perspective," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 8(4), pages 16-32, December.
    6. Lazarev, Valery, 2007. "Political labor market, government policy, and stability of a non-democratic regime," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 546-563, September.
    7. Udi Sommer, 2018. "Women, Demography, and Politics: How Lower Fertility Rates Lead to Democracy," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(2), pages 559-586, April.
    8. Lazarev, Valery, 2004. "Political Rents, Promotion Incentives, and Support for a Non-Democratic Regime," Center Discussion Papers 28381, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    9. Knack, Stephen & Zak, Paul J., 2001. "Building trust: public policy, interpersonal trust and economic development," MPRA Paper 25055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sarantis Kalyvitis & Irene Vlachaki, 2010. "Democratic Aid And The Democratization Of Recipients," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(2), pages 188-218, April.

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