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Dangerous Dyads

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  • Stuart A. Bremer

    (State University of New York, Binghamton)

Abstract

Theoretical arguments and some empirical evidence suggest that war is more likely to occur between states that are geographically proximate, approximately equal in power, major powers, allied, undemocratic, economically advanced, and highly militarized than between those that are not. Bivariate analyses of these seven factors in relation to the onset of interstate war over all pairs of states in the period from 1816 to 1965 generally support these associations. However, multivariate analyses reveal some differences. In order of declining importance, the conditions that characterize a dangerous, war-prone dyad are: presence of contiguity, absence of alliance, absence of more advanced economy, absence of democratic polity, absence of overwhelming preponderance, and presence of major power. Taken together these findings suggest that our research priorities may be seriously distorted and that the idealist prescription for peace may be better than the realist one.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart A. Bremer, 1992. "Dangerous Dyads," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 309-341, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:36:y:1992:i:2:p:309-341
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002792036002005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Antoine Soubeyran & Agnes Tomini, 2012. "Water Shortages and Conflict," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(2), pages 279-297.
    3. Håvard Hegre, 2005. "Development and the Liberal Peace," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 31, pages 17-46.
    4. Susan Ariel Aaronson & M. Rodwan Abouharb & K. Daniel Wang, 2015. "The Liberal Illusion Is Not a Complete Delusion: The WTO Helps Member States Keep the Peace Only When It Increases Trade," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 455-484, December.
    5. Walter Riker, 2009. "The Democratic Peace is Not Democratic: On Behalf of Rawls’ Decent Societies," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 57(3), pages 617-638, October.
    6. Luo, Shali & Miller, J. Isaac, 2014. "On the spatial correlation of international conflict initiation and other binary and dyadic dependent variables," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 107-118.
    7. Michelle Benson, 2007. "Extending the Bounds of Power Transition Theory," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 211-215, July.
    8. Erik Gartzke & Dominic Rohner, 2010. "To conquer or compel: war, peace, and economic development," IEW - Working Papers 511, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    9. Chang, Yuan-Ching & Polachek, Solomon W. & Robst, John, 2004. "Conflict and trade: the relationship between geographic distance and international interactions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 491-509, September.
    10. Robert A. Hart & William Reed, 1999. "Selection effects and dispute escalation: Democracy and status quo evaluations," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 243-263, March.
    11. Erich Weede, 2011. "The Capitalist Peace," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Brast, Benjamin, 2017. "Liberal Statebuilding Interventions and the Monopoly on Violence," SocArXiv yqk9v, Center for Open Science.
    13. de la Reza, German A., 1996. "Tides of change: Leadership and enlargement agreements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 43-53.
    14. Yonatan Lupu & Vincent A. Traag, 2013. "Trading Communities, the Networked Structure of International Relations, and the Kantian Peace," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(6), pages 1011-1042, December.
    15. William D. Nordhaus & John R. Oneal & Bruce Russett, 2009. "The Effects of the Security Environment on Military Expenditures: Pooled Analyses of 165 Countries, 1950-2000," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1707, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2009.
    16. Brian Benjamin Crisher, 2014. "Inequality Amid Equality: Military Capabilities and Conflict Behavior in Balanced Dyads," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 246-269, March.
    17. Michael Mousseau, 2010. "Coming to Terms with the Capitalist Peace," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 185-192, May.
    18. James K. Galbraith & Corwin Priest & George Purcell, 2007. "Economic Equality And Victory In War: An Empirical Investigation," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 431-449.
    19. Massoud Tansa G. & Magee Christopher S., 2012. "Trade and Political, Military, and Economic Relations," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-39, May.
    20. Sebastian Rosato, 2011. "On the Democratic Peace," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 15, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Jack S. Levy, 2011. "Theories and Causes of War," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Gokmen Gunes, 2012. "A Test of Huntington’s Thesis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 1-9, December.
    23. Corbetta Renato & Volgy Thomas J. & Rhamey J. Patrick, 2013. "Major Power Status (In)Consistency and Political Relevance in International Relations Studies," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 291-307, December.

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