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Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War

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  • Siverson, Randolph M.
  • Starr, Harvey

Abstract

Using borders and alliances as indicators of opportunity and willingness, respectively, we test the relationship between these and the diffusion of war during the 1816–1965 period. The impact of borders and alliances, individually and in combination, on the growth of ongoing war through “infectious” diffusion is shown through the comparison of baseline cases to cases where states at peace were exposed to various “treatments” comprised of warring border nations or warring alliance partners. The findings indicate that the probability of war diffusion is substantially increased as opportunities and willingness increase, particularly when such geographic and political factors are combined. The applicability of the opportunity and willingness framework to the study of war and diffusion is expanded and confirmed.

Suggested Citation

  • Siverson, Randolph M. & Starr, Harvey, 1990. "Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(1), pages 47-67, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:84:y:1990:i:01:p:47-67_19
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    Cited by:

    1. William Reed & Daina Chiba, 2010. "Decomposing the Relationship Between Contiguity and Militarized Conflict," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 61-73, January.
    2. Derrick V. Frazier, 2006. "Third Party Characteristics, Territory and the Mediation of Militarized Interstate Disputes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 23(4), pages 267-284, September.
    3. Renato Corbetta, 2015. "Between indifference and coercion: Third-party intervention techniques in ongoing disputes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 3-27, February.
    4. Zeev Maoz, 2009. "Primed to Fight," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(5), pages 411-436, November.
    5. Anderton,Charles H. & Carter,John R., 2009. "Principles of Conflict Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875578, December.
    6. Erik Gartzke & Dominic Rohner, 2010. "Prosperous pacifists: The effects of development on initiators and targets of territorial conflict," IEW - Working Papers 500, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    7. A. J. Enterline, 1998. "Regime Changes, Neighborhoods, and Interstate Conflict, 1816-1992," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(6), pages 804-829, December.
    8. Tobias Böhmelt, 2015. "The spatial contagion of international mediation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 108-127, February.
    9. Dong-Joon Jo & Erik Gartzke, 2007. "Determinants of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 167-194, February.
    10. David B Carter, 2017. "History as a double-edged sword," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 400-421, November.
    11. Reed M. Wood, 2014. "Opportunities to kill or incentives for restraint? Rebel capabilities, the origins of support, and civilian victimization in civil war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(5), pages 461-480, November.
    12. Stuart A. Bremer, 1992. "Dangerous Dyads," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 309-341, June.
    13. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla & Harvey Starr, 1995. "Opportunity, Willingness and Political Uncertainty," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 7(4), pages 447-476, October.
    14. Ryan Dudley & Ross A. Miller, 1998. "Group Rebellion in the 1980s," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(1), pages 77-96, February.
    15. López Cruz, Iván & Torrens, Gustavo, 2023. "Hidden drivers of violence diffusion: Evidence from illegal oil siphoning in Mexico," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 26-70.
    16. David H. Clark & Patrick M. Regan, 2003. "Opportunities to Fight," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(1), pages 94-115, February.
    17. Sara McLaughlin Mitchell & Clayton L. Thyne, 2010. "Contentious Issues as Opportunities for Diversionary Behavior," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(5), pages 461-485, November.
    18. Kathryn Furlong & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2003. "The Boundary Dataset," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 20(1), pages 93-117, February.

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