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Foreign Policy and the Evaluation of Presidential Candidates

Author

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  • Miroslav Nincic

    (University of California, Davis)

  • Barbara Hinckley

    (New York University)

Abstract

This article applies recent work on social cognition to examine the impact of foreign policy on presidential elections, particularly on the evaluation of incumbent candidates. The authors propose that specific issue evaluations shape the public's overall evaluation of candidates and that the overall evaluation in turn shapes the public's voting decision. This two-step hypothesis is tested with aggregate and individual-level data for both foreign policy and economic evaluations of incumbent performance and for the very different elections of 1980 and 1984. The results support the hypothesized two-step process at both aggregate and individual levels of analysis and for all categories of party identifiers. Foreign policy issues not only shape public evaluation of candidates but their influence does not compare unfavorably with that of economic circumstances. The results provide new evidence that the outcome of presidential elections is influenced, albeit indirectly, by foreign policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Miroslav Nincic & Barbara Hinckley, 1991. "Foreign Policy and the Evaluation of Presidential Candidates," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(2), pages 333-355, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:35:y:1991:i:2:p:333-355
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002791035002009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mueller, John E., 1970. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, March.
    2. Aldrich, John H. & Sullivan, John L. & Borgida, Eugene, 1989. "Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidates “Waltz Before a Blind Audience?”," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 123-141, March.
    3. Ostrom, Charles W. & Simon, Dennis M., 1985. "Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 334-358, June.
    4. Krosnick, Jon A. & Kinder, Donald R., 1990. "Altering the Foundations of Support for the President Through Priming," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 497-512, June.
    5. Hurwitz, Jon & Peffley, Mark, 1987. "How are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1099-1120, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alastair Smith & David R. Hayes, 1996. "The shadow of the polls: Electoral effects on international agreements," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 79-108, September.

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