IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v31y1987i4p573-600.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long Waves in War, Production, Prices, and Wages

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua S. Goldstein

    (School of International Relations, University of Southern California)

Abstract

This article summarizes the main empirical findings of a research project on long waves of roughly 50 years length in political/economic life. The statistical analysis of 40 historical economic time series, along with data on great power wars, indicates that war plays a central role in the long wave, that “stagflation†can be seen as a phase of the long wave, and that war dampens economic growth. Since 1495, long waves are identified in great power war severity and in internationally synchronized trends of prices and real wages. Weaker long waves are found in world production since 1750, these phases leading the war phases by about a decade. A theoretical model consistent with these lagged correlations among variables is elaborated. Long waves are seen as arising from a two-way causality between war and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua S. Goldstein, 1987. "Long Waves in War, Production, Prices, and Wages," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(4), pages 573-600, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:31:y:1987:i:4:p:573-600
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002787031004002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002787031004002
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002787031004002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rostow, W. W., 1975. "Kondratieff, Schumpeter, and Kuznets: Trend Periods Revisited," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 719-753, December.
    2. Hamilton, Earl J., 1977. "The Role of War in Modern Inflation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 13-19, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark Knell & Simone Vannuccini, 2022. "Tools and concepts for understanding disruptive technological change after Schumpeter," Jena Economics Research Papers 2022-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    2. Dal Pont Legrand, Muriel & Hagemann, Harald, 2017. "Business Cycles, Growth, And Economic Policy: Schumpeter And The Great Depression," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 19-33, March.
    3. Francesco Quatraro, 2009. "Innovation, structural change and productivity growth: evidence from Italian regions, 1980--2003," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(5), pages 1001-1022, September.
    4. Reijnders, Jan P.G., 2009. "Trend movements and inverted Kondratieff waves in the Dutch economy, 1800-1913," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 90-113, June.
    5. Eydam, Ulrich & Leupold, Florian, 2024. "What is it good for? On the inflationary effects of military conflicts," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    6. Warr, Benjamin & Ayres, Robert, 2006. "REXS: A forecasting model for assessing the impact of natural resource consumption and technological change on economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 329-378, September.
    7. Arthur Mustafin, 2018. "Kondratiev Long Cycles: New Information About Discussions In The Ussr In The 1920s," HSE Working papers WP BRP 168/HUM/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Caplan, B., 2002. "How does war shock the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-162, April.
    9. M J Webber & S Tonkin, 1987. "Technical Changes and the Rate of Profit in the Canadian Food Industry," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 19(12), pages 1579-1596, December.
    10. Sterman, John., 1983. "A simple model of the economic long wave," Working papers 1422-83., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    11. Michael Ball & Tanya Morrison & Andrew Wood, 1996. "Structures Investment and Economic Growth: A Long-term International Comparison," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 33(9), pages 1687-1706, November.
    12. Dimitri O. Ledenyov & Viktor O. Ledenyov, 2013. "On the accurate characterization of business cycles in nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems," Papers 1304.4807, arXiv.org.
    13. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.
    14. Orley M. Amos, Jr., 1989. "An Inquiry into the Causes of Increasing Regional Income Inequality in The United States," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-12, Spring.
    15. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Harvey Starr & Francis W. Hoole & Jeffrey A. Hart & John R. Freeman, 1984. "The Relationship between Defense Spending and Inflation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 103-122, March.
    17. Spinola, Danilo, 2023. "Instability constraints and development traps: an empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    18. Charles Gore, 2010. "The global recession of 2009 in a long-term development perspective," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 714-738.
    19. William R. Thompson & L. Gary Zuk, 1982. "War, Inflation, and the Kondratieff Long Wave," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(4), pages 621-644, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:31:y:1987:i:4:p:573-600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.