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Terrorist Success in Hostage-Taking Incidents

Author

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  • Todd Sandler

    (Department of Economics, Iowa State University)

  • John L. Scott

    (Department of Economics, University of South Carolina)

Abstract

This article identifies factors that help explain terrorist success in hostage-taking events. Two measures of success are examined: logistical success and negotiation success. In the empirical estimations, we regress the log of the odds ratio against various sets of explanatory variables. For both sets of models, the statistical results are robust to changes in the explanatory variables. Our results are compared with propositions derived from the economic theory of bargaining; these propositions are partly supported by our findings. The article also sketches the choice-theoretic model faced by a terrorist during the planning and negotiating stages of a hostage mission.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd Sandler & John L. Scott, 1987. "Terrorist Success in Hostage-Taking Incidents," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 35-53, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:31:y:1987:i:1:p:35-53
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002787031001003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T. & Cauley, Jon, 1983. "A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 36-54, March.
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    7. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sandler, Todd & Enders, Walter, 2004. "An economic perspective on transnational terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-316, June.
    2. Andrew Samuel & Seth D. Guikema, 2012. "Resource Allocation for Homeland Defense: Dealing with the Team Effect," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 238-252, September.
    3. Prabal Roy Chowdhury & Jaideep Roy, 2011. "Aid in times of terror," Discussion Papers 11-08, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    4. Brandt, Patrick T. & George, Justin & Sandler, Todd, 2016. "Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 41-52.
    5. Detotto Claudio & McCannon Bryan C. & Vannini Marco, 2014. "Understanding Ransom Kidnappings and Their Duration," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 849-871, July.
    6. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, "undated". "Terrorism: Deterrence May Backfire," IEW - Working Papers 136, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    7. Alexander Fink & Mark Pingle, 2014. "Kidnap insurance and its impact on kidnapping outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 481-499, September.
    8. Aslihan Saygili, 2019. "Concessions or Crackdown: How Regime Stability Shapes Democratic Responses to Hostage taking Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(2), pages 468-501, February.
    9. Peter J. Phillips & Gabriela Pohl, 2017. "Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 150-164, March.
    10. Edward F. Mickolus, 1987. "Comment — Terrorists, Governments, and Numbers," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 54-62, March.
    11. Sean P. O'brien, 1996. "Foreign Policy Crises and the Resort to Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(2), pages 320-335, June.
    12. Sylvain Baumann, 2009. "Protection and technology transfer against a terrorist threat," Post-Print hal-02311532, HAL.
    13. Terje Aven & Seth Guikema, 2015. "On the Concept and Definition of Terrorism Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(12), pages 2162-2171, December.
    14. Aparicio, Juan P. & Jetter, Michael, 2020. "Captivating News in Colombia," IZA Discussion Papers 13834, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Olaf J. de Groot & Matthew D. Rablen & Anja Shortland, 2012. "Barrgh-gaining with Somali Pirates," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 74, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Brandt, Patrick T. & Sandler, Todd, 2009. "Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 758-778, September.
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00572 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Dwight Lee & Todd Sandler, 1989. "On the optimal retaliation against terrorists: The paid-rider option," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 141-152, May.
    19. Margaret A. Wilson, 2000. "Toward a Model of Terrorist Behavior in Hostage-Taking Incidents," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(4), pages 403-424, August.
    20. Sylvain Baumann, 2018. "Protection, Technological Transfer and Alliance against Terrorist Conflict," Post-Print hal-02949083, HAL.
    21. Sylvain Baumann & Pedro Lages dos santos & Samir Amine & Fabrice Valognes, 2009. "Protection, Alliance and Negotiation against a Terrorist Threat," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3214-3221.
    22. Guikema, Seth D. & Aven, Terje, 2010. "Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(5), pages 478-483.

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