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The Use of the Posterior Probability in Score Differencing

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Listed:
  • Sandip Sinharay
  • Matthew S. Johnson

Abstract

Score differencing is one of the six categories of statistical methods used to detect test fraud (Wollack & Schoenig, 2018) and involves the testing of the null hypothesis that the performance of an examinee is similar over two item sets versus the alternative hypothesis that the performance is better on one of the item sets. We suggest, to perform score differencing, the use of the posterior probability of better performance on one item set compared to another. In a simulation study, the suggested approach performs satisfactory compared to several existing approaches for score differencing. A real data example demonstrates how the suggested approach may be effective in detecting fraudulent examinees. The results in this article call for more attention to the use of posterior probabilities, and Bayesian approaches in general, in investigations of test fraud.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandip Sinharay & Matthew S. Johnson, 2021. "The Use of the Posterior Probability in Score Differencing," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 46(4), pages 403-429, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jedbes:v:46:y:2021:i:4:p:403-429
    DOI: 10.3102/1076998620957423
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wim Linden & Charles Lewis, 2015. "Bayesian Checks on Cheating on Tests," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 689-706, September.
    2. Sandip Sinharay & Jens Ledet Jensen, 2019. "Higher-Order Asymptotics and Its Application to Testing the Equality of the Examinee Ability Over Two Sets of Items," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 84(2), pages 484-510, June.
    3. Thomas Warm, 1989. "Weighted likelihood estimation of ability in item response theory," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 427-450, September.
    4. C. Glas & Anna Dagohoy, 2007. "A Person Fit Test For Irt Models For Polytomous Items," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 159-180, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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