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A Procedure for the Derivation of the Best Estimate When Empirical Data Are Unattainable

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  • Hoi K. Suen

    (Northern Illinois University)

Abstract

A procedure for the analysis of judgmental estimates when empirical information is unattainable is derived from sampling theory and a set of assumptions regarding the internal relationship between experience and the process of subjective estimation. The procedure uses a t-distribution concept to derive the relative experience of an expert and uses the derived experience as weight to obtain a weighted mean. The weighted mean is the best estimate given that it accounts for individual experience. Results from an empirical validation are presented. These results showed that the method was significantly more accurate than existing methods and the error m estimation was reduced by an average of one-half.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoi K. Suen, 1984. "A Procedure for the Derivation of the Best Estimate When Empirical Data Are Unattainable," Evaluation Review, , vol. 8(5), pages 734-743, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:8:y:1984:i:5:p:734-743
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X8400800510
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert L. Winkler, 1968. "The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 61-75, October.
    2. Olaf Helmer & Nicholas Rescher, 1959. "On the Epistemology of the Inexact Sciences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 25-52, October.
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