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Implications of Increased Infectivity in Early-Stage HIV Infection

Author

Listed:
  • Steven D. Pinkerton

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Paul R. Abramson

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

Recent reports suggest that the infectivity of sexually transmitted HIV (i.e., the probability of transmission on a single sexual contact) may be up to 1,000 times greater during thefirstfew months of infection than during the long asymptomatic period that precedes the development of AIDS. Assuming the validity of this estimate, a simple Bernoulli-process model of HIV transmis sion indicates that, in some cases, the expected number of secondary infections is greater for the brief period of primary infection than for the much longer asymptomatic phase. The implications of these findings for current HIV/AIDS prevention practices are analyzed with particular attention to the role of condom use in preventing HIV transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven D. Pinkerton & Paul R. Abramson, 1996. "Implications of Increased Infectivity in Early-Stage HIV Infection," Evaluation Review, , vol. 20(5), pages 516-540, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:20:y:1996:i:5:p:516-540
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X9602000502
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weller, Susan C., 1993. "A meta-analysis of condom effectiveness in reducing sexually transmitted HIV," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1635-1644, June.
    2. Ross, M.W., 1987. "Problems associated with condom use in homosexual men," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 77(7), pages 877-877.
    3. Warner, David Lee & Hatcher, Robert A., 1994. "A meta-analysis of condom effectiveness in reducing sexually transmitted HIV," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1169-1170, April.
    4. Thompson, J.L.P. & Yager, T.J. & Martin, J.L., 1993. "Estimated condom failure and frequency of condom use among gay men," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 83(10), pages 1409-1413.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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