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Future shrinking cities on the globe: A projection map for 2020–2100 based on global gridded population dataset

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  • Xinyu Wang
  • Ying Long

Abstract

Shrinking cities have become increasingly prevalent worldwide due to various factors, which pose serious challenges to affected areas in terms of population decline, economic decline, and spatial deterioration. While existing research studies have focused on identifying shrinking cities, there is a need for global projections to mitigate uncertainties in their growth trajectories. Spatially explicit population grids offer a new approach to identifying potentially shrinking cities with sufficient spatial resolution. By utilizing a global gridded population dataset from 2020 to 2100 under the SSP2 (Middle of the Road) scenario, we produce a global projection map for future shrinking cities. Among the total 19,024 natural cities, 9682 cities (50.9%) will face population decline and 1751 cities (9.2%) may lose more than half population by 2100. Cities in East Asia and East Europe may face serious population decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinyu Wang & Ying Long, 2023. "Future shrinking cities on the globe: A projection map for 2020–2100 based on global gridded population dataset," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(7), pages 1994-1997, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:50:y:2023:i:7:p:1994-1997
    DOI: 10.1177/23998083231186153
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cristina Martinez‐Fernandez & Ivonne Audirac & Sylvie Fol & Emmanuèle Cunningham‐Sabot, 2012. "Shrinking Cities: Urban Challenges of Globalization," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 213-225, March.
    2. Guangzhao Chen & Xia Li & Xiaoping Liu & Yimin Chen & Xun Liang & Jiye Leng & Xiaocong Xu & Weilin Liao & Yue’an Qiu & Qianlian Wu & Kangning Huang, 2020. "Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
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