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The California Urban Futures Model: A New Generation of Metropolitan Simulation Models

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  • J D Landis

    (Department of City and Regional Planning, University of California at Berkeley, Wurster Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA)

Abstract

The California Urban Futures model is the first in a new generation of metropolitan simulation models which replicate realistic urban growth patterns and the impacts of development policy at various levels of government. It projects population from the ‘bottom-up’, it allocates growth to sites based on development profitability, it realistically embodies the role of accessibility in the development process, and it is operated through the medium of geographic information systems. This paper is an explanation of the rationale of the model and the way it has been built in terms of its formal structure, its databases, its decision rules which reflect the development process, and its application to the San Francisco Bay Area where it has been used to evaluate the impact of a diverse set of development policies. The paper concludes with an agenda for further model development.

Suggested Citation

  • J D Landis, 1994. "The California Urban Futures Model: A New Generation of Metropolitan Simulation Models," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 21(4), pages 399-420, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:21:y:1994:i:4:p:399-420
    DOI: 10.1068/b210399
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    Cited by:

    1. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman, 2019. "Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Ravulaparthy, Srinath & Goulias, Konstadinos G., 2011. "Forecasting with Dynamic Microsimulation: Design, Implementation, and Demonstration," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2x12q5pv, University of California Transportation Center.
    3. Myung-Jin Jun, 2012. "The effects of Seoul’s greenbelt on the spatial distribution of population and employment, and on the real estate market," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 619-642, December.
    4. Dagmar Haase, 2005. "Derivation of robust predictor variables for modelling urban shrinkage and its effects at different scales," ERSA conference papers ersa05p322, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Still, B. G. & May, A. D. & Bristow, A. L., 1999. "The assessment of transport impacts on land use: practical uses in strategic planning," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 83-98, April.
    6. Tschangho John Kim & Jinsoo You & Seung-kwan Lee, 1998. "An integrated urban systems model with GIS," ERSA conference papers ersa98p374, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Bin Zhou & Kara Kockelman, 2008. "Neighborhood impacts on land use change: a multinomial logit model of spatial relationships," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(2), pages 321-340, June.
    8. David Levinson, 2004. "The Evolution of Transport Networks," Working Papers 200510, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.

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