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Spatial Variability in Fertility in Menoufia, Egypt, Assessed through the Application of Remote-Sensing and GIS Technologies

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Listed:
  • John R Weeks
  • M Saad Gadalla
  • Tarek Rashed
  • James Stanforth
  • Allan G Hill

    (Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA)

Abstract

Fertility in rural areas such as the Governorate of Menoufia in Egypt may be influenced both by spatial factors (including the diffusion of innovations) and by essentially nonspatial factors (such as the availability of education for women and the percentage of adult women who are currently married). The nonspatial variables are available directly from censuses but the spatial component requires an accurate location of the villages to which the census data refer and then appropriate decomposition of the data into spatial and nonspatial components. We use IRS satellite imagery to classify the built area in a rural governorate in Egypt and then assign village-level census data to the centroids of those polygons and incorporate the data into a GIS. We then employ measures of global and local spatial statistics to conclude that in 1976 the combination of female illiteracy, proportion married, and spatial clustering accounted for 39% of the variation in fertility in Menoufia. In 1986 those same factors explained 51% of the variation in fertility. In 1976 about one third and in 1986 about half of the explained variability was due to the spatial component (‘diffusion’) and the other half due to a combination of demographic characteristics. Furthermore, between 1976 and 1986 there was a clear north-to-south drift of fertility, with lower fertility being clustered in the north and higher fertility clustered in the south.

Suggested Citation

  • John R Weeks & M Saad Gadalla & Tarek Rashed & James Stanforth & Allan G Hill, 2000. "Spatial Variability in Fertility in Menoufia, Egypt, Assessed through the Application of Remote-Sensing and GIS Technologies," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(4), pages 695-714, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:32:y:2000:i:4:p:695-714
    DOI: 10.1068/a3286
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chesnais, Jean-Claude, 1992. "The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286592.
    2. Arthur Getis, 1995. "Spatial Filtering in a Regression Framework: Examples Using Data on Urban Crime, Regional Inequality, and Government Expenditures," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Luc Anselin & Raymond J. G. M. Florax (ed.), New Directions in Spatial Econometrics, chapter 8, pages 172-185, Springer.
    3. Easterlin, Richard A. & Crimmins, Eileen M., 1985. "The Fertility Revolution," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226180298, December.
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    1. Carl Schmertmann & Joseph Potter & Suzana Cavenaghi, 2008. "Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Patterns in Brazil’s Fertility Transition," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(1), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Cornilius Chikwama & João Lourenço Marques, 2021. "Connections between research and policy: The case of fertility diffusion and regional demographic policy in Portugal," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 729-743, June.
    3. Agnese Vitali & Arnstein Aassve & Trude Lappegård, 2015. "Diffusion of Childbearing Within Cohabitation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(2), pages 355-377, April.
    4. Sohyla Reshadat & Alireza Zangeneh & Shahram Saeidi & Neda Izadi & S. Ramin Ghasemi & Nader Rajabi-Gilan, 2018. "A Feasibility Study of Implementing the Policies on Increasing Birth Rate with an Emphasis on Socio-economic Status: A Case Study of Kermanshah Metropolis, Western Iran," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 619-636, November.
    5. Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates as a dynamic indicator of urban transformations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 151-172, February.

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