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Forecasting Global HIV—AIDS Dynamics: Modelling Strategies and Preliminary Simulations

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  • R W Thomas

    (School of Geography, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, England)

Abstract

In the light of the considerable biomathematical effort devoted to building models of the incidence of HIV and AIDS in communities, in this paper a multiregion specification is developed that includes a parsimonious cross-infection mechanism where high-risk and low-risk populations are distinguished by their promiscuity rates. The nature of this mixing is compared with some existing modelling formats, and some preliminary simulations are presented for the timing and spread of the epidemic in a sixteen-city global system.

Suggested Citation

  • R W Thomas, 1994. "Forecasting Global HIV—AIDS Dynamics: Modelling Strategies and Preliminary Simulations," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 26(7), pages 1147-1166, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:26:y:1994:i:7:p:1147-1166
    DOI: 10.1068/a261147
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas, R.W., 1988. "Carrier models for the simulation of Hodgkin's disease: A review with some extensions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-140, January.
    2. Richard Thomas, 1993. "Source Region Effects In Epidemic Disease Modeling: Comparisons Between Influenza And Hiv," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 257-282, July.
    3. R W Thomas, 1992. "Space-Time Interactions in Multiregion Disease Modelling," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 24(3), pages 341-360, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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