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Source Region Effects In Epidemic Disease Modeling: Comparisons Between Influenza And Hiv

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  • Richard Thomas

Abstract

ABSTRACT The research reported in this paper presents the preliminary findings obtained from applying a multiregion disease model to forecasting pandemics of infectious disease. The beginning section examines the structure of the modeling system together with various start region effects that are embedded in the framework. An appropriate form of the model is fitted to the known spread of the 1957 Asian influenza pandemic and then used to examine the distributions of warning times that are associated with varying the location of the source region. The disease parameters are adjusted to represent current knowledge about the host‐agent relationship for HIV, and used to make povisional forecast for the spread of the virus during the next half century. The discussion considers how this highly simplified simulation procedure might be improved upon in future work, particularly in relation to cross‐infection between the high risk groups.

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  • Richard Thomas, 1993. "Source Region Effects In Epidemic Disease Modeling: Comparisons Between Influenza And Hiv," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 257-282, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:72:y:1993:i:3:p:257-282
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1435-5597.1993.tb01876.x
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    Cited by:

    1. F M Smyth & R W Thomas, 1996. "Controlling HIV/AIDS in Ireland: The Implications for Health Policy of Some Epidemic Forecasts," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 28(1), pages 99-118, January.
    2. Lívia Madeira Triaca & Felipe Garcia Ribeiro & César Augusto Oviedo Tejada, 2021. "Mosquitoes, birth rates and regional spillovers: Evidence from the Zika epidemic in Brazil," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 795-813, June.
    3. R W Thomas, 1994. "Forecasting Global HIV—AIDS Dynamics: Modelling Strategies and Preliminary Simulations," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 26(7), pages 1147-1166, July.

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