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The Tipping-Point Model: Prediction of Change in the Racial Composition of Cleveland, Ohio, Neighborhoods, 1940–1970

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  • W A Schwab
  • E Marsh

Abstract

The tipping-point model of neighborhood change is tested for the years 1940–1970. The model posits that once a white area reaches a certain percentage of Negro residents the area will become completely Negro. Recent work by Steinnes (1977), who used a regression analysis of a sample of Chicago census tracts, supports the tipping-point concept. The present replication with Cleveland, Ohio, data differs from the earlier work in three ways: (1) control for sectoral growth patterns; (2) use of the entire population of Cleveland's tracts, rather than a sample of tracts, to determine whether the model is generalizable to the entire city; and (3) an expansion of the time frame of the study. The tipping-point model does not appear to be generalizable to the entire city of Cleveland. The findings suggest that social, economic, and historical factors need to be included in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • W A Schwab & E Marsh, 1980. "The Tipping-Point Model: Prediction of Change in the Racial Composition of Cleveland, Ohio, Neighborhoods, 1940–1970," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 12(4), pages 385-398, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:12:y:1980:i:4:p:385-398
    DOI: 10.1068/a120385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reynolds Farley, 1977. "Residential segregation in urbanized areas of the United States in 1970: An analysis of social class and racial differences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 14(4), pages 497-518, November.
    2. Alden Speare, 1970. "Home ownership, life cycle stage, and residential mobility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 7(4), pages 449-458, November.
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