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Environmental assessment of renewable energy scenarios for a sustainable future in Turkey

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  • Hasan Saygın
  • Hasan V Oral
  • Serkan KardaÅŸlar

Abstract

In this study, we aim to present the outcomes of the environmental impact assessment of renewable energy scenarios relevant with the sustainable perception in Turkey using energy modelling for the period 2014–2050. Therefore, we use the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System model and develop three scenarios as follows: Reference Scenario, Alternative Scenario-I, and Alternative Scenario-II. We find that the total social costs in Reference Scenario, Alternative Scenario-I and Alternative Scenario-II are $88.75 billion, $76.73 billion and $71.15 billion per annum, respectively. Self-sufficiency of the country as the political impact factor in Reference Scenario is expected to be 10.5% in 2050, while it is 41.4% in Alternative Scenario-I and 54% in Alternative Scenario-II. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, Reference Scenario leads to 736 million metric tons of CO 2 -eq per annum, which is calculated to be 77.4% and 99.5% higher than Alternative Scenario-I and Alternative Scenario-II, respectively. We conclude that it is a necessity for Turkey to employ its renewable energy potential that it possesses in abundance with efficiency measures. Otherwise, missing this paradigm shift process may stir up a hornet’s nest of harder sectoral challenges and externalities in the near future of the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan Saygın & Hasan V Oral & Serkan KardaÅŸlar, 2020. "Environmental assessment of renewable energy scenarios for a sustainable future in Turkey," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(2), pages 237-255, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:31:y:2020:i:2:p:237-255
    DOI: 10.1177/0958305X19855992
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balat, Havva, 2007. "A renewable perspective for sustainable energy development in Turkey: The case of small hydropower plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(9), pages 2152-2165, December.
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    3. Waheed Ahmad & Sana Ullah & Ilhan Ozturk & Muhammad Tariq Majeed, 2021. "Does inflation instability affect environmental pollution? Fresh evidence from Asian economies," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(7), pages 1275-1291, November.

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