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An Estimate of the Centennial Variability of Global Temperatures

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  • Philip J. Lloyd

    (Energy Institute, Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Cape Town P.O.Box 652 Cape Town 8000)

Abstract

There has been widespread investigation of the drivers of changes in global temperatures. However, there has been remarkably little consideration of the magnitude of the changes to be expected over a period of a few decades or even a century. To address this question, the Holocene records up to 8000 years before present, from several ice cores were examined. The differences in temperatures between all records which are approximately a century apart were determined, after any trends in the data had been removed. The differences were close to normally distributed. The average standard deviation of temperature was 0.98 ± 0.27 o C. This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip J. Lloyd, 2015. "An Estimate of the Centennial Variability of Global Temperatures," Energy & Environment, , vol. 26(3), pages 417-424, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:26:y:2015:i:3:p:417-424
    DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.26.3.417
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    References listed on IDEAS

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