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How should economists model climate? Tipping points and nonlinear dynamics of carbon dioxide concentrations

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  • Chavas, Jean-Paul
  • Grainger, Corbett
  • Hudson, Nicholas

Abstract

Economists modeling climate policy face an array of choices when modeling climate change, including the role of uncertainty/ambiguity, irreversibility, and tipping points. After filtering out estimated cycles due to orbital climate forcing, we use a threshold quantile autoregressive model to characterize anomalies in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We then test for local instability and tipping points, and we characterize the stationary distribution of anomalies. We find evidence of nonlinear dynamics, tipping points and a non-normal stationary distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Chavas, Jean-Paul & Grainger, Corbett & Hudson, Nicholas, 2016. "How should economists model climate? Tipping points and nonlinear dynamics of carbon dioxide concentrations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 56-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:132:y:2016:i:pb:p:56-65
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2016.01.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Liu, Pei-Zhi & Klein, Tony & Sheenan, Lisa, 2024. "Does the low-carbon pilot cities policy make a difference to the carbon intensity reduction?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 227-239.
    3. Novak, Lindsey, 2020. "Persistent norms and tipping points: The case of female genital cutting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 433-474.

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