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The Systemic Failure of General Circulation Climate Models: A Tribute to S. Fred Singer

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  • Patrick J. Michaels

    (Center for the Study of Science, Cato Institute, Washington DC 20001 USA)

Abstract

Observed trends in global surface air temperature depart significantly from those predicted by the ensemble of models used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. An alternative paradigm, where lower rates of warming are predicted, has emerged in the last three years. Here we test the hypotheses put forth by those models and document the alternative that is likely more consistent with observations.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick J. Michaels, 2014. "The Systemic Failure of General Circulation Climate Models: A Tribute to S. Fred Singer," Energy & Environment, , vol. 25(6-7), pages 1153-1161, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:25:y:2014:i:6-7:p:1153-1161
    DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.25.6-7.1153
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Magne Aldrin & Marit Holden & Peter Guttorp & Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie & Gunnar Myhre & Terje Koren Berntsen, 2012. "Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 253-271, May.
    2. J. Annan & J. Hargreaves, 2011. "On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 423-436, February.
    3. Loehle, Craig, 2014. "A minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 276(C), pages 80-84.
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