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Measuring the Impact of Carbon Allowance Trading on Energy Prices

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  • Fatemeh Nazifi

    (Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia)

  • George Milunovich

    (Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia)

Abstract

We investigate time series linkages between the EU carbon allowance price and the prices of coal, oil, natural gas and electricity. We find no long-run relationship between the variables, but instead some short-run linkages. Using Granger causality tests and generalised impulse-response analysis we find evidence of links between i ) carbon and oil, ii ) carbon and natural gas, and iii ) electricity and carbon, as well as other links between the energy variables. The finding of no long-term relationship can be attributed either to the relative immaturity and imperfections of the carbon market, or the possibility that while carbon trading may result in a more efficient use of energy resources, it does not directly impact fossil fuel prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatemeh Nazifi & George Milunovich, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Carbon Allowance Trading on Energy Prices," Energy & Environment, , vol. 21(5), pages 367-383, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:21:y:2010:i:5:p:367-383
    DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.21.5.367
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    2. Panagiotis G. Papaioannou & George P. Papaioannou & Kostas Siettos & Akylas Stratigakos & Christos Dikaiakos, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation between Electricity and Stock markets during the Financial Crisis in Greece," Papers 1708.07063, arXiv.org.
    3. Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
    4. Nhlangwini, Pamela & Mongale, Itumeleng Pleasure, 2019. "Mining Production and Economic Growth Nexus," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(3), pages 103-116.
    5. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer & Stefan Trück, 2011. "The Dependence Structure between Carbon Emission Allowances and Financial Markets - A Copula Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3418, CESifo.
    6. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Yiying & Qi, Yinshu & Duan, Kun, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of decomposed oil-price shocks on the EU carbon market dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    7. Castagneto-Gissey, Giorgio, 2014. "How competitive are EU electricity markets? An assessment of ETS Phase II," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 278-297.
    8. Bo Yu & Zhijia Chang, 2024. "Connectedness of Carbon Price and Energy Price under Shocks: A Study Based on Positive and Negative Price Volatility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-26, June.
    9. Yeonjeong Lee & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "Dynamic Spillover and Hedging among Carbon, Biofuel and Oil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Zhu, Bangzhu & Han, Dong & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Dynamic multiscale interactions between European carbon and electricity markets during 2005–2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 309-322.
    11. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Yiying & yan, Cheng & Wen, Fenghua & Lu, Zudi, 2022. "The interrelationship between the carbon market and the green bonds market: Evidence from wavelet quantile-on-quantile method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    12. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    13. Nader Trabelsi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2023. "CO2 Emission Allowances Risk Prediction with GAS and GARCH Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 775-805, February.
    14. Nazifi, Fatemeh & Trück, Stefan & Zhu, Liangxu, 2021. "Carbon pass-through rates on spot electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    15. Lo Prete, Chiara & Norman, Catherine S., 2013. "Rockets and feathers in power futures markets? Evidence from the second phase of the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 312-321.
    16. Wang, Yudong & Guo, Zhuangyue, 2018. "The dynamic spillover between carbon and energy markets: New evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 24-33.

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