IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v73y2014icp278-297.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How competitive are EU electricity markets? An assessment of ETS Phase II

Author

Listed:
  • Castagneto-Gissey, Giorgio

Abstract

This paper studies the interactions between electricity and carbon allowance prices in the year-ahead energy markets of France, Germany, United Kingdom and the Nordic countries, during Phase II of the EU ETS. VAR and Granger-causality methods are used to analyze causal interfaces, whereas the volatility of electricity prices is studied with basic and asymmetric AR-GARCH models. Among the main results, the marginal rate at which carbon prices feed into electricity prices is shown to be ca. 135% in the EEX and Nord Pool markets, where electricity and carbon prices display bidirectional causality, and 109% in the UK. Therefore, generators in these markets internalized the cost of freely allotted emission allowances into their electricity prices considerably more than the proportionate increase in costs justified by effective carbon intensity. Moreover, electricity prices in France are found to Granger-cause the carbon price. This study also shows how European electricity prices are deeply linked to coal prices among other factors, both in terms of levels and volatility, regardless of the underlying fuel mix, and that coal was marginally more profitable than gas for electricity generation. EU policies aimed at increasing the carbon price are likely to be crucial in limiting the externalities involved in the transition to a low-carbon system.

Suggested Citation

  • Castagneto-Gissey, Giorgio, 2014. "How competitive are EU electricity markets? An assessment of ETS Phase II," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 278-297.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:278-297
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514003875
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keppler, Jan Horst & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria, 2010. "Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3329-3341, July.
    2. Zachmann, Georg & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2008. "First evidence of asymmetric cost pass-through of EU emissions allowances: Examining wholesale electricity prices in Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 465-469, June.
    3. Harrison Fell, 2010. "EU-ETS and Nordic Electricity: A CVAR Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-26.
    4. Harrison Fell, Beat Hintermann, and Herman Vollebergh, 2015. "Carbon content of electricity futures in Phase II of the EU ETS," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    5. Jos Sijm & Karsten Neuhoff & Yihsu Chen, 2006. "CO 2 cost pass-through and windfall profits in the power sector," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 49-72, January.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4210 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    8. Severin Borenstein & James. Bushnell & Steven Stoft, 2000. "The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in A Deregulated Electricity Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(2), pages 294-325, Summer.
    9. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    10. Bonacina, Monica & Gulli`, Francesco, 2007. "Electricity pricing under "carbon emissions trading": A dominant firm with competitive fringe model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4200-4220, August.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    12. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5269 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Engle, Robert F, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87: Discussion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 103-106.
    15. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    16. Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2007. "Outlier Treatment and Robust Approaches for Modeling Electricity Spot Prices," MPRA Paper 4711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Keppler, Jan Horst & Cruciani, Michel, 2010. "Rents in the European power sector due to carbon trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4280-4290, August.
    18. Frieder Mokinski & Nikolas Wölfing, 2014. "The effect of regulatory scrutiny: Asymmetric cost pass-through in power wholesale and its end," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 175-193, April.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2570 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Fatemeh Nazifi & George Milunovich, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Carbon Allowance Trading on Energy Prices," Energy & Environment, , vol. 21(5), pages 367-383, September.
    21. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ye, Shunxin & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & He, Kaijian & Wei, Yi-Ming & Xie, Rui, 2019. "A multiscale analysis for carbon price drivers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 202-216.
    2. Guo, Bowei & Castagneto Gissey, Giorgio, 2021. "Cost pass-through in the British wholesale electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Federico Galán-Valdivieso & Elena Villar-Rubio & María-Dolores Huete-Morales, 2018. "The erratic behaviour of the EU ETS on the path towards consolidation and price stability," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 689-706, October.
    4. Bowei Guo & Giorgio Castagneto Gissey, 2019. "Cost Pass-through in the British Wholesale Electricity Market: Implications of Brexit and the ETS reform," Working Papers EPRG1937, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    5. Pilar Gargallo & Luis Lample & Jesús A. Miguel & Manuel Salvador, 2021. "Co-Movements between Eu Ets and the Energy Markets: A Var-Dcc-Garch Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-36, July.
    6. Christos Bentsos & Demetris Koursaros & Kyriaki G. Louka & Konstantinos D. Melas & Nektarios A. Michail, 2023. "Liquefied Natural Gas Prices and Their Relationship with a Country’s Energy Mix: A Case Study for Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-16, November.
    7. de Menezes, Lilian M. & Houllier, Melanie A. & Tamvakis, Michael, 2016. "Time-varying convergence in European electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 613-627.
    8. Qiao, Sen & Dang, Yi Jing & Ren, Zheng Yu & Zhang, Kai Quan, 2023. "The dynamic spillovers among carbon, fossil energy and electricity markets based on a TVP-VAR-SV method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    9. Gargallo, Pilar & Lample, Luis & Miguel, Jesús A. & Salvador, Manuel, 2024. "Sequential management of energy and low-carbon portfolios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2019. "What happens to the relationship between EU allowances prices and stock market indices in Europe?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 13-24.
    11. de Menezes, Lilian M. & Houllier, Melanie A., 2015. "Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 357-368.
    12. Yeonjeong Lee & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "Dynamic Spillover and Hedging among Carbon, Biofuel and Oil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    13. Wang, M. & Zhou, P., 2017. "Does emission permit allocation affect CO2 cost pass-through? A theoretical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 140-146.
    14. Zhu, Bangzhu & Han, Dong & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Dynamic multiscale interactions between European carbon and electricity markets during 2005–2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 309-322.
    15. Jun Rentschler & Raimund Bleischwitz & Florian Flachenecker, 2018. "On imperfect competition and market distortions: the causes of corporate under-investment in energy and material efficiency," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 159-183, January.
    16. Themistoclis Pantos & Stathis Polyzos & Aggelos Armenatzoglou & Ilias Kampouris, 2019. "Volatility Spillovers in Electricity Markets: Evidence from the United States," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 131-143.
    17. Rentschler, Jun & Kornejew, Martin & Bazilian, Morgan, 2017. "Fossil fuel subsidy reforms and their impacts on firms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 617-623.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2019. "What happens to the relationship between EU allowances prices and stock market indices in Europe?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 13-24.
    2. Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Toppinen, Anne, 2013. "Price determination in the EU ETS market: Theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 380-395.
    3. Aatola, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports P62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Jouvet, Pierre-André & Solier, Boris, 2013. "An overview of CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1370-1376.
    5. Lo Prete, Chiara & Norman, Catherine S., 2013. "Rockets and feathers in power futures markets? Evidence from the second phase of the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 312-321.
    6. Remes, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports 62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Li, Yan & Feng, Tian-tian & Liu, Li-li & Zhang, Meng-xi, 2023. "How do the electricity market and carbon market interact and achieve integrated development?--A bibliometric-based review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    8. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    9. Pahle, Michael & Fan, Lin & Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2011. "How Emission Certificate Allocations Distort Fossil Investments: The German Example," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 1975-1987.
    10. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    11. Maryniak, Paweł & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Carbon pricing and electricity markets — The case of the Australian Clean Energy Bill," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
    12. Cotton, Deborah & De Mello, Lurion, 2014. "Econometric analysis of Australian emissions markets and electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 475-485.
    13. Zhu, Bangzhu & Han, Dong & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Dynamic multiscale interactions between European carbon and electricity markets during 2005–2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 309-322.
    14. Panagiotis G. Papaioannou & George P. Papaioannou & Kostas Siettos & Akylas Stratigakos & Christos Dikaiakos, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation between Electricity and Stock markets during the Financial Crisis in Greece," Papers 1708.07063, arXiv.org.
    15. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    16. Beat Hintermann, 2016. "Pass-Through of CO2 Emission Costs to Hourly Electricity Prices in Germany," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(4), pages 857-891.
    17. Yin Chu & J. Scott Holladay & Jacob LaRiviere, 2017. "Opportunity Cost Pass-through from Fossil Fuel Market Prices to Procurement Costs of the U.S. Power Producers," Working Papers 2017-02, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics.
    18. Nazifi, Fatemeh & Trück, Stefan & Zhu, Liangxu, 2021. "Carbon pass-through rates on spot electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    19. Frank Venmans, 2015. "Capital market response to emission allowance prices: a multivariate GARCH approach," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 17(4), pages 577-620, October.
    20. Christophe Chorro & Emmanuelle Jay & Philippe De Peretti & Thibault Soler, 2021. "Frequency causality measures and Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models: An improved subset selection method suited to parsimonious systems," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 21013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:278-297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.