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Oil Price Uncertainty and M&A Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel D. Barrows
  • Magnus Blomkvist
  • Nebojsa Dimic
  • Milos Vulanovic

Abstract

This study examines the impact of oil price uncertainty on mergers and acquisition (M&A) activity in the oil and gas sector. Analyzing this industry enables us to construct a natural forward-looking measure of oil price uncertainty, namely the implied crude oil volatility. Using a sample of U.S. firms in the oil and gas sector from 1994–2018 containing 4,323 announced transactions, we document that oil price uncertainty is negatively related to future M&A activity. Uncertainty is mainly a driver of horizontal and vertical M&A activity, where upstream firms are more affected by this uncertainty than downstream firms. Our results lend support to a real options explanation of investment under uncertainty where firms choose to defer investments as a response to increased uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel D. Barrows & Magnus Blomkvist & Nebojsa Dimic & Milos Vulanovic, 2023. "Oil Price Uncertainty and M&A Activity," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(4), pages 1-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:44:y:2023:i:4:p:1-20
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.4.sbar
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 419-453, November.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
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