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Seasonal Flexibility in the European Natural Gas Market

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  • Iegor Riepin
  • Felix Musgens

Abstract

This paper focuses on seasonal demand swings in the European natural gas market. We quantify and compare the role of different flexibility options (domestic production, gas storage, and pipeline and LNG imports) to assess European demand fluctuations in monthly resolution. We contribute to the existing literature on seasonal flexibility by addressing the problem with a mathematical gas market optimization model. Our paper provides valuable empirical insights into the decline of gas production in northwestern Europe. Furthermore, we focus on how specific flexibility features differ between pipeline supplies and LNG supplies and between gas imports and storage dispatch. In terms of methodology, we construct a bottom-up market optimization model and publish the complete source code (which is uncommon for gas market models). Furthermore, we propose a new metric—the scaled coefficient of variation—to quantify the importance of supply sources for seasonal flexibility provision.

Suggested Citation

  • Iegor Riepin & Felix Musgens, 2022. "Seasonal Flexibility in the European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(1), pages 117-138, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:1:p:117-138
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.1.irie
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1995. "Effects of Liberalizing the Natural Gas Markets in Western Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 85-112.
    2. Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz. With support by Victoria Czempinski & Alexandra Lüth & Sebastian Wegel & Jan Zepter, 2019. "Global Gas Model: Model and Data Documentation v3.0 (2019)," Data Documentation 100, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Jan Abrell and Hannes Weigt, 2016. "The Short and Long Term Impact of Europe's Natural Gas Market on Electricity Markets until 2050," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yanhui & Zhou, Xiaoyu & Chen, Shun & Mi, Jackson Jinhong, 2024. "LNG freight rate and LNG price, carbon price, geopolitical risk: A dynamic connectedness analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).

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