IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v40y2019i2_supplp85-100.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Prices and Banking Instability: A Jump-Diffusion Model for Bank Capital Structure

Author

Listed:
  • Willi Semmler
  • Samar Issa

Abstract

We develop an empirical model of bank capital structure to study the impact of large oil shocks on overleveraging of banks which presents severe challenges for banks’ balance sheet management. The measure of overleveraging builds on the Stein (2012) model by adding a jump-diffusion component that captures the jump size and intensity of predictors such as oil prices and political instability. Overleveraging is derived and estimated for a sample of six banks in three oil-producing countries and Western countries using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, for the years 2006-2016. The estimation of the optimal debt shows that most of the banks in this context had a high optimal debt around 2008, overlapping with the oil price shock. In addition, most of the predictors, namely oil prices and political instability factors proxied by terrorism, political corruption, and military expenses, regularly appeared in volatility and jump intensity factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Willi Semmler & Samar Issa, 2019. "Oil Prices and Banking Instability: A Jump-Diffusion Model for Bank Capital Structure," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(2_suppl), pages 85-100, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:2_suppl:p:85-100
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI2.wsem
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.40.SI2.wsem
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.40.SI2.wsem?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jerome L. Stein, 2012. "Stochastic Optimal Control and the U.S. Financial Debt Crisis," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4614-3079-7, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Overleveraging, Financial Fragility, And The Banking–Macro Link: Theory And Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 4-32, January.
    2. Wei-han Liu, 2023. "Attaining stochastic optimal control over debt ratios in U.S. markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 967-993, October.
    3. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
    4. Willi Semmler & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Escape Routes from Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro Area," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 163-193, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Weiwei Shen & Juliang Yin, 2022. "Optimal Investment and Risk Control Strategies for an Insurer Subject to a Stochastic Economic Factor in a Lévy Market," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 2913-2931, December.
    6. Bin Zou & Abel Cadenillas, 2017. "Optimal Investment and Liability Ratio Policies in a Multidimensional Regime Switching Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-22, January.
    7. Liang, Zongxia & Long, Mingsi, 2015. "Minimization of absolute ruin probability under negative correlation assumption," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 247-258.
    8. Jin, Zhuo & Yang, Hailiang & Yin, G., 2015. "Optimal debt ratio and dividend payment strategies with reinsurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 351-363.
    9. Yang Shen & Bin Zou, 2021. "Mean-Variance Investment and Risk Control Strategies -- A Time-Consistent Approach via A Forward Auxiliary Process," Papers 2101.03954, arXiv.org.
    10. Shen, Yang & Zou, Bin, 2021. "Mean–variance investment and risk control strategies — A time-consistent approach via a forward auxiliary process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 68-80.
    11. Issa, Samar & Gevorkyan, Aleksandr V., 2022. "Optimal corporate leverage and speculative cycles: an empirical estimation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 478-491.
    12. Christian R. Proaño & Christian Schoder & Willi Semmler, 2013. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Nonlinear Dynamic Panels," Working Papers 1304, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    13. Zhuo Jin & Zuo Quan Xu & Bin Zou, 2020. "A Perturbation Approach to Optimal Investment, Liability Ratio, and Dividend Strategies," Papers 2012.06703, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    14. Julia M. Puaschunder, 2020. "Monetary Systems," Proceedings of the 16th International RAIS Conference, March 30-31, 2020 001jm1, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    15. Bin Zou & Abel Cadenillas, 2014. "Optimal Investment and Risk Control Problem for an Insurer: Expected Utility Maximization," Papers 1402.3560, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:2_suppl:p:85-100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.