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China’s Natural Gas Demand Projections and Supply Capacity Analysis in 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Qiang Ji
  • Ying Fan
  • Mike Troilo
  • Ronald D. Ripple
  • Lianyong Feng

Abstract

This paper builds an econometric model to analyze the income elasticity and price elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand and forecasts China’s natural gas demand up to 2030. The findings indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among sectoral natural gas demand, sectoral income and various fuel prices. The results also indicate that most price elasticities are smaller relative to developed countries; the effect of fuel prices on natural gas demand is partly offset by the government regulation. In the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, China’s natural gas demand will reach 340 bcm and 528 bcm and its foreign dependence will reach 27.9% and 43.2% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The forecast and discussion in this paper provide important insights into China’s energy policy design and pricing mechanism reform, and into the potential impact of China’s growing natural gas demand on global energy market dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Ji & Ying Fan & Mike Troilo & Ronald D. Ripple & Lianyong Feng, 2018. "China’s Natural Gas Demand Projections and Supply Capacity Analysis in 2030," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(6), pages 53-70, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:39:y:2018:i:6:p:53-70
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.6.qji
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
    2. Aguilera, Roberto F. & Inchauspe, Julian & Ripple, Ronald D., 2014. "The Asia Pacific natural gas market: Large enough for all?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-6.
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