IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v38y2017i1p133-166.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global LNG Pricing Terms and Revisions: An Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Agerton

Abstract

Asian long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are generally thought to index LNG prices to oil prices. This should mean that LNG and oil prices are cointegrated. However, statistical evidence for cointegration using Japanese data is not strong. To resolve this puzzle, I examine 16 Japanese, South Korean, Taiwanese, and Spanish LNG import price series and allow for multiple, unknown structural breaks in the relationship to oil prices. This resolves the puzzle, and I provide estimates for the timing of breaks and the underlying average pricing terms. I relate these to count, volume, and duration data on long-term contracts and discuss how to interpret econometric estimates in light of contract data. This paper complements existing work on global gas market integration, which largely ignores how discrete changes in oil-indexed long-term contracts will affect empirical relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Agerton, 2017. "Global LNG Pricing Terms and Revisions: An Empirical Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(1), pages 133-166, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:38:y:2017:i:1:p:133-166
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.1.mage
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.38.1.mage
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.38.1.mage?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter R. Hartley & Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2014. "The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: The Role of the Exchange Rate," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(2), pages 25-44, April.
    2. David J. Ramberg and John E. Parsons, 2012. "The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 1993. "Pipeline Access and Market Integration in the Natural Gas Industry: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-20.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdullahi Alim & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2018. "Asian Spot Prices for LNG and other Energy Commodities," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(1), pages 123-142, January.
    2. Hasanli, Mübariz, 2024. "Re-examining crude oil and natural gas price relationship: Evidence from time-varying regime-switching models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    4. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    5. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    6. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK‐LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export‐Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328, September.
    7. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Martha Misas A, 1995. "La tasa de interés en Colombia: 1958-1992," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 14(27), pages 63-94, June.
    8. Anderson, Richard G. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H., 2002. "A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 569-598, December.
    9. Tomasz Jędrzejowicz & Kamila Sławińska, 2014. "Shifting from Labor to Consumption Taxes: The Impact on Tax Revenue Volatility," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 81-101.
    10. Cumhur Şahin & Hüseyin Altay, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey's Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, February.
    11. Dreger, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-13.
    12. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    13. Thorbecke, Willem, 2018. "The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 538-549.
    14. Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2019. "Breaks, Trends and the Attribution of Climate Change: A Time-Series Analysis," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(83), pages 1-31.
    15. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.
    16. Fisayo Fagbemi & Babafemi Oladejo & Opeoluwa A. Adeosun, 2020. "The Effectiveness of Poverty Alleviation Policy: Why is the Quality of Institutions the Bane in Nigeria?," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/099, African Governance and Development Institute..
    17. Fisayo Fagbemi & Babafemi Oladejo & Opeoluwa A. Adeosun, 2020. "The Effectiveness of Poverty Alleviation Policy: Why is the Quality of Institutions the Bane in Nigeria?," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/099, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    18. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    19. Halser, Christoph & Paraschiv, Florentina & Russo, Marianna, 2023. "Oil–gas price relationships on three continents: Disruptions and equilibria," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    20. Carlos Esteban Posada & Martha Misas Arango, 1995. "La Tasa De Interés En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3087, Banco de la Republica.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:38:y:2017:i:1:p:133-166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.