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The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: The Role of the Exchange Rate

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  • Peter R. Hartley
  • Kenneth B. Medlock III

Abstract

Several previous studies have found evidence that oil and natural gas prices in the United States are cointegrated. There is also evidence, however, that the relationship is unstable. One explanation is that technological changes alter the substitutability between natural gas and oil products. We reaffirm this finding, but also find evidence that the exchange rate influences the relative price of oil to natural gas in the United States. As in previous studies, we again find that short run departures from long run equilibrium are influenced by weather, product inventories, other seasonal factors and supply shocks such as severe tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter R. Hartley & Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2014. "The Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices: The Role of the Exchange Rate," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(2), pages 25-44, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:35:y:2014:i:2:p:25-44
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.2.2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter R. Hartley & Kenneth B Medlock III & Jennifer E. Rosthal, 2008. "The Relationship of Natural Gas to Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(3), pages 47-66, July.
    2. David J. Ramberg and John E. Parsons, 2012. "The Weak Tie Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(2), pages 45-60, April.
    5. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    6. Peter R. Hartley & Kenneth B Medlock III & Jennifer E. Rosthal, 2008. "The Relationship of Natural Gas to Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 29(3), pages 47-66, July.
    7. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
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