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The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables: How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment

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  • Lion Hirth

Abstract

This paper estimates the welfare-optimal market share of wind and solar power, explicitly taking into account their output variability. We present a theoretical valuation framework that consistently accounts for the impact of fluctuations over time, forecast errors, and the location of generators in the power grid on the marginal value of electricity from renewables. Then the optimal share of wind and solar power in Northwestern Europe’s generation mix is estimated from a calibrated numerical model. We find the optimal long-term wind share to be 20%, three times more than today; however, we also find significant parameter uncertainty. Variability significantly impacts results: if winds were constant, the optimal share would be 60%. In addition, the effect of technological change, price shocks, and policies on the optimal share is assessed. We present and explain several surprising findings, including a negative impact of CO2 prices on optimal wind deployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lion Hirth, 2015. "The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables: How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(1), pages 149-184, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:36:y:2015:i:1:p:149-184
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.1.6
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    1. Nelson, James & Johnston, Josiah & Mileva, Ana & Fripp, Matthias & Hoffman, Ian & Petros-Good, Autumn & Blanco, Christian & Kammen, Daniel M., 2012. "High-resolution modeling of the western North American power system demonstrates low-cost and low-carbon futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 436-447.
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    1. Simshauser, Paul & Newbery, David, 2024. "Non-firm vs priority access: On the long run average and marginal costs of renewables in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

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