IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v20y1999i1p105-124.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Integrated Model of Oil Production

Author

Listed:
  • John R. Moroney
  • M. Douglas Berg

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample forecasts show that a model combining reserves, lagged production, and the real price of oil performs much better than models based on reserves alone or economic variables alone.

Suggested Citation

  • John R. Moroney & M. Douglas Berg, 1999. "An Integrated Model of Oil Production," The Energy Journal, , vol. 20(1), pages 105-124, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:20:y:1999:i:1:p:105-124
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter, 2008. "Exploration economics in a regulated petroleum province: The case of the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-320, March.
    2. Dennis Nchor & Václav Klepáč, 2016. "Prediction of Oil Depletion in Ghana Based on Hubbert's Model," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 325-331.
    3. Scarpa, Elisa & Longo, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Markandya, Anil, 2007. "Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting," International Energy Markets Working Papers 12118, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Antonio RIBBA, 2010. "Sources of Unemployment Fluctuations in the USA and in the Euro Area in the Last Decade," EcoMod2010 259600141, EcoMod.
    5. Kaiser, Mark J. & Mesyanzhinov, Dmitry V. & Pulsipher, Allan G., 2004. "Long-term infrastructure forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico: a decision- and resource-based approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1209-1224, July.
    6. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo & Markandya, Anil & Scarpa, Elisa, 2011. "Oil Price Forecast Evaluation with Flexible Loss Functions," Energy: Resources and Markets 120042, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Rehrl, Tobias & Friedrich, Rainer, 2006. "Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2413-2428, October.
    8. Bräuninger, Michael & Matthies, Klaus & Weinert, Günter & Koller, Cornelia & Pflüger, Wolfgang & Roestel, Axel-Adrian, 2005. "Energierohstoffe. Teil I: Szenarien für die langfristige Entwicklung auf den Märkten für Energierohstoffe. Teil II: Strategieansätze unterschiedlicher Energiepreisszenarien aus der Sicht von Politik, ," Strategy 2030 - Wealth and Life in the Next Generation 1, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) and Berenberg.
    9. Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012. "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper 229, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Apr 2012.
    10. Cleveland, Cutler J. & Kaufmann, Robert K., 2003. "Oil supply and oil politics: Deja Vu all over again," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 485-489, May.
    11. Brandt, Adam R., 2010. "Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3958-3974.
    12. Mohn, Klaus, 2009. "Elastic Oil. A primer on the economics of exploration and production," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/10, University of Stavanger.
    13. Szklo, Alexandre & Machado, Giovani & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2007. "Future oil production in Brazil--Estimates based on a Hubbert model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2360-2367, April.
    14. Tavares, Marina Elisabete Espinho & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Machado, Giovani Vitoria & Schaeffer, Roberto & Mariano, Jacqueline Barboza & Sala, Janaina Francisco, 2006. "Oil refining expansion criteria for Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3027-3040, November.
    15. Johannes Mauritzen, 2017. "The Effect of Oil Prices on Field Production: Evidence from the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 124-144, February.
    16. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2008. "Former Soviet Union oil production and GDP decline: Granger causality and the multi-cycle Hubbert curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-289, March.
    17. Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zia-Ur- Rahman, 2019. "Influence of Excessive Expenditure of the Government in Perspective of Interest Rate and Money Circulation Which in Turn Affects the Growing Process in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 120-129.
    2. Yuanyuan Zhang & Saralees Nadarajah, 2017. "Flexible Heavy Tailed Distributions for Big Data," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 421-432, September.
    3. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Grzegorz Rybak & Edward Kozłowski & Krzysztof Król & Tomasz Rymarczyk & Agnieszka Sulimierska & Artur Dmowski & Piotr Bednarczuk, 2023. "Algorithms for Optimizing Energy Consumption for Fermentation Processes in Biogas Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    6. David F. Hendry, 2013. "Econometric Modelling: The ‘Consumption Function’ In Retrospect," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(5), pages 495-522, November.
    7. Eckhard Hein & Christian Schoder, 2011. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation -- A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 693-723, November.
    8. Marc Lavoie & Gabriel Rodriguez & Mario Seccareccia, 2004. "Similitudes and Discrepancies in Post-Keynesian and Marxist Theories of Investment: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-149.
    9. Colin C. Williams & Ioana Alexandra Horodnic, 2017. "Tackling Bogus Self-Employment: Some Lessons From Romania," Journal of Developmental Entrepreneurship (JDE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 1-20, June.
    10. Branstetter, Lee & Chatterjee, Chirantan & Higgins, Matthew J., 2022. "Generic competition and the incentives for early-stage pharmaceutical innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    11. Matthias Hartmann & Helmut Herwartz & Yabibal M. Walle, 2012. "Where enterprise leads, finance follows. In-sample and out-of-sample evidence on the causal relation between finance and growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 871-882.
    12. Checo, Ariadne & Mejía, Mariam & Ramírez, Francisco A., 2017. "El rol de los regímenes de precipitaciones sobre la dinámica de precios y actividad del sector agropecuario de la República Dominicana durante el período 2000-2016 [The role of rainfall regimes on ," MPRA Paper 80301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    14. Sadorsky, P. A., 1989. "Measuring Resource Scarcity in Non-renewable Resources with Inequality Constrained Estimation," Queen's Institute for Economic Research Discussion Papers 275216, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    15. Yayi Yan & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng, 2021. "On Time-Varying VAR Models: Estimation, Testing and Impulse Response Analysis," Papers 2111.00450, arXiv.org.
    16. McGuirk, Anya M. & Spanos, Aris, 2004. "Revisiting Error Autocorrelation Correction: Common Factor Restrictions And Granger Causality," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20176, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
    18. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1984. "Model Specification Tests Based on Artificial Linear Regressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 485-502, June.
    19. Davidson, Russell & Trokić, Mirza, 2020. "The fast iterated bootstrap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 451-475.
    20. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    21. de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc & Rochat, Denis, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-361, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integrated model; oil production; forecasting; Hubbert's model; oil reserves; US.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:20:y:1999:i:1:p:105-124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.