IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v31y2009i2p260-271.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structural change in the export demand function for Indonesia: Estimation, analysis and policy implications

Author

Listed:
  • Hossain, Akhand Akhtar

Abstract

This paper investigates the aggregate export demand behaviour in Indonesia with annual data for the period 1963-2005. Both the Pesaran bounds testing and the Johansen cointegration tests results suggest that there exists a long-run relationship between real exports, world income and the relative export prices in Indonesia. The long-run income elasticity of the demand for Indonesia's exports is significantly greater than one and the long-run relative export price elasticity of the demand for its exports is significantly lower than one. The recursive and rolling regressions and the Hansen-Johansen stability test results suggest that the export demand function for Indonesia has undergone a significant structural change since the late-1990s, which is reflected in the decrease of the income elasticity, and an increase in the relative export price elasticity, of demand for Indonesian exports. These results explain the relatively slow growth of Indonesian exports since 2000 that has slowed the country's economic recovery from the financial crises of 1997-1998.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossain, Akhand Akhtar, 2009. "Structural change in the export demand function for Indonesia: Estimation, analysis and policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 260-271.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:2:p:260-271
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161-8938(08)00057-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    5. Siregar, Reza & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2005. "Sources of variations between the inflation rates of Korea, Thailand and Indonesia during the post-1997 crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 867-884, October.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    9. Hadi Soesastro & M. Chatib Basri, 2005. "The Political Economy of Trade Policy in Indonesia," Trade Working Papers 22033, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Abbas Valadkhani, 2005. "Modelling Demand For Broad Money In Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 47-64, March.
    11. Singh, Tarlok, 2002. "India's trade balance: the role of income and exchange rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 437-452, August.
    12. Hamori, Shigeyuki & Matsubayashi, Yoichi, 2001. "An empirical analysis on the stability of Japan's aggregate import demand function," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 135-144, April.
    13. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Stevenson, Andrew A & Montagna, Catia, 1995. "Modeling Aggregate Manufactured Exports for Some Asian Newly Industrialized Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 147-155, February.
    14. Augustine C. Arize, 2001. "Traditional export demand relation and parameter instability: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(6), pages 378-396, October.
    15. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 2000. "A Reassessment of Long-Run Elasticities of Japanese Import Demand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 625-639, September.
    16. William James & David Ray & Peter Minor, 2003. "Indonesia'S Textiles And Apparel: The Challenges Ahead," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 93-103.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natalya Ketenci, 2014. "Trade Elasticities, Commodity Prices, and the Global Financial Crisis," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 6(3), pages 233-256, September.
    2. Zheng, Zijuan & Saghaian, Sayed H. & Reed, Michael R., 2012. "Factors Affecting the Export Demand for U.S. Pistachios," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 66-76.
    4. Soltani, Mohammad & Saghaian, Sayed H., 2012. "Export Demand Function Estimation for U.S. Raisins," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119860, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Hasara Rathnasekara & Madhavie Herath & Shyama Ratnasiri & Ranjika Walisinghe, 2017. "Demand for seafood exports in Sri Lanka: Has Sri Lanka gained competitiveness after civil war," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201703, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    6. Florian Verheyen, 2014. "The stability of German export demand equations – have German exports suffered from the strength of the euro?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 529-548, December.
    7. Bolaji Adesola Adesoye, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Export Demand in Nigeria," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(36), pages 122-130, May.
    8. Ketenci, Natalya, 2013. "The effect of global financial crisis on trade elasticities: Evidence from BRIICS countries and Turkey," MPRA Paper 54659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak, 2022. "Determinants for international competitiveness of the food industry in 43 countries worldwide: evidence from panel models," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(3), pages 635-667, September.
    10. Eliphas Ndou, 2022. "Exchange rate changes on export volumes in South Africa under the inflation targeting period," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-25, June.
    11. Saghaian, Yasser & Reed, Michael & Saghaian, Sayed, 2014. "Export Demand Estimation for U.S. Corn and Soybeans to Major Destinations," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162546, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    12. Lavee, Doron & Beniad, Gilat & Moshe-Jantzis, Moran, 2013. "Israel's foreign trade policy: The benefits of its reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 255-270.
    13. Eliphas Ndou, 2021. "Exchange rate changes, price level and the income effects on trade balance in South Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 1-19, February.
    14. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "How Do Foreign and Domestic Demand Affect Exports Performance? An Econometric Investigation of Indonesia's Exports," IDEC DP2 Series 1-4, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), revised Jan 2012.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "Japanese aggregate import demand function: reassessment from the 'bounds' testing approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 419-436, December.
    2. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Bo-Yu & Tsai, Pei-Hui & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the impacts of a carbon tax on imported forest products—evidence from Taiwan," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 45-52.
    3. Akhand Hossain, 2012. "Modelling of narrow money demand in Australia: an ARDL cointegration approach, 1970–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 767-790, June.
    4. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    5. Barnett, William A. & Ghosh, Taniya & Adil, Masudul Hasan, 2022. "Is money demand really unstable? Evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 606-622.
    6. Fukumoto, Mayumi, 2012. "Estimation of China's disaggregate import demand functions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 434-444.
    7. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2019. "How justified is abandoning money in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia on the grounds of instability in the money‐demand function?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(2), July.
    8. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2008. "Rural Labour Market Developments, Agricultural Productivity, and Real Wages in Bangladesh, 1950–2006," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 89-114.
    9. Linda Akoto & Daniel Sakyi, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Trade Balance in Post-liberalization Ghana," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(3), pages 177-205, August.
    10. Yoichi Matsubayashi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2009. "Empirical analysis of import demand behavior of least developed countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1443-1458.
    11. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2019. "Does money have a role in the inflation process? Evidence from Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 113-129, June.
    12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    13. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Aggregate Import Demand Function for Japan: A Cointegration Re-investigation," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 363-377.
    14. Santos-Paulino, Amelia U., 2002. "The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Imports in Selected Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 959-974, June.
    15. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2003. "Cointegration analysis for Japanese import demand: revisited," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 905-908.
    16. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "India's trade with USA and her trade balance: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    18. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amr Hosny, 2015. "Commodity trade between EU and Egypt and Orcutt’s hypothesis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-24, February.
    20. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hajilee, Massomeh, 2009. "The J-Curve at industry level: Evidence from Sweden-US trade," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 83-92, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:2:p:260-271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.